De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) expects the economy to recover smoothly from the corona crisis from this quarter.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2022.
In 2023, growth will normalize again to 1.9 percent.
DNB therefore expects that we will recover from the corona crisis much faster than from the financial crisis.
With this expectation, DNB assumes that the contact-limiting measures will be increasingly relaxed from now on and that they will no longer be necessary at the beginning of 2022.
DNB has also worked out a milder and more serious scenario.
In the mild scenario, DNB expects the pandemic to be fully under control from the autumn and all contact-limiting measures can be abolished.
In that case, economic growth between 2021 and 2023 will be approximately 0.4 percentage point higher than in the base scenario.
If a new virus variant emerges or the vaccination program is not successful, DNB will assume the severe scenario.
In that case, contact-limiting measures are needed until 2023 and growth would be 1.1 percentage points per year lower.
In the three scenarios, the recovery is in any case a lot smoother than DNB had previously estimated, Olaf Sleijpen, director of monetary affairs and financial stability, said on Monday. In March, DNB was still counting on a growth of 2 percent for this year. "We have structurally overestimated the consequences of the pandemic for the economy. That applies not only to us, but to many more organizations, also outside the Netherlands."
According to Sleijpen, this is because the adaptability of the economy turned out to be much greater than many authorities thought possible. Business and consumers have quickly adapted to the new situation. "In addition, world trade has done much better than we expected," says Sleijpen. World trade is a major driver of economic development and therefore has a major impact on growth in the Netherlands.