An important move to crack the "pig cycle"


　　As an important commodity for the people's livelihood, pork has a stable market supply and price, which directly affects the vital interests of the masses.

Whether the new reserve adjustment mechanism can really play a role remains to be tested by the market.

To implement the work of ensuring the supply and price stabilization of important livelihood commodities, it is necessary to form a joint, efficient and powerful control force.

　　The continuous decline in pork prices has allowed consumers to eat meat happily, but it has also caused anxiety among many pig farmers.

Although experts have already warned about the "pig cycle" before, the pig breeding industry, which made a lot of money at the beginning of the year, now has to face the new or upcoming "loss cycle".

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year in May, of which pork prices fell by 23.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 45.04 yuan/kg; on June 8, the average price of pork was 24.31 yuan/kg.

In 4 months, the price of pork dropped by nearly half.

　　As an important commodity for the people's livelihood, whether pork can guarantee its market supply and price stability is directly related to the vital interests of the people.

At the same time, the price of pork is basically market pricing, and it is inevitable that there will be some cyclical fluctuations. However, the chain of pork production, storage, processing and sales is long, many links, and wide. The characteristics of "small production and large market" are prominent. In the event of disasters, market risks or emergencies, pork prices can easily rise and fall, which in turn causes many problems at both ends of supply and demand.

　　In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Prevention of excessive fall in live pig prices (temporary)" as early as 2009. Since then, it has undergone several revisions and formed the "Reduction of Periodic Fluctuations in Live Pig Market Prices" in 2015. Preplan."

From the actual situation, the relevant plans have played a positive role in promoting the stable operation of the live pig market, alleviating the cyclical fluctuations in prices, and ensuring the residents' pork consumption.

　　However, the African swine fever epidemic that occurred in 2018 has had a serious impact on my country's live pig production and pork market.

Some of the previous experience and practices accumulated by government departments in the adjustment of pork reserves have partially failed or weakened, and it is urgent to improve and adjust them in accordance with the current reality.

Combining the practical exploration in the past two years, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have jointly issued the "Improvement of the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism to Do a Good Job in the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize the Price Work Plan". A series of more targeted measures have been adopted.

　　Compared with the 2015 plan, the new plan has revised and improved the core content of early warning indicators and intervals, reserve classification and scale, reserve adjustment mechanism, and institutionalized and institutionalized the government's “visible hand” experience and practices in recent years.

　　For example, the new plan adds two important indicators: one is "the rate of change in the stock of reproductive sows". This indicator serves as a leading indicator and can be used to determine the changes in the stock of reproductive sows in the next 8 months to 10 months. An early warning will be given for changes in pig production capacity after a month; the second is the "average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities" indicator, which is closer to consumers' feelings, and provides early warning and response when pork prices fluctuate excessively.

In addition, according to the "pig and food price ratio" indicator generally recognized by the pig breeding industry, different levels of early warning intervals are set when the price of live pigs drops or rises excessively, leaving plenty of room for spontaneous market adjustments.

　　It is worth noting that the new plan has separate regular reserves and temporary reserves for the different functional positioning of government pork reserves, which is expected to make the reserve adjustment mechanism more flexible and precise.

Different from conventional reserves, temporary reserves fully draw on the practices of other important livelihood commodities, purchasing and storing when the price of live pigs drops excessively and production capacity drops sharply, in order to achieve the goal of stable production expectations and stable production capacity.

The use of temporary reserves has greatly increased the overall size of pork reserves, which will help strengthen the ability to control the pork market to maintain supply and stabilize prices.

　　On the whole, the new plan insists on both the “raising” and the “lowering” of the prices of live pigs and pork, giving full play to the important role of the government’s pork reserve adjustment as a key starting point. Start the temporary reserve at the time.

This not only guarantees the consumption needs of residents, but also avoids excessive expansion or elimination of live pig production capacity, which helps to achieve stable supply and price stability, and price stability to promote stable supply.

　　Of course, whether the new reserve adjustment mechanism can really work is yet to be tested by the market, but implementing the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of important livelihood commodities, including pork, is an unavoidable tough battle that requires coordinated use of economy, law, administration, etc. Means, on the basis of consolidating the main responsibilities of the local authorities, truly form a joint, efficient and powerful control force, and make every effort to ensure sufficient supply of important livelihood commodities and stable prices.

　　Gu Yang