The economic upturn is confirmed with a boom in salaried employment that is greater than expected and signs of recovery everywhere.
Daniel Fortin takes stock of a current economic issue.
Daniel Fortin replaces Nicolas Barré this Friday, June 11, 2021.
This is a figure that surprised specialists, INSEE announced on Thursday a strong rebound in salaried employment in the third quarter, +86,100 in all, this is one more sign of a particularly vigorous economic recovery.
This figure is 30,000 more than what had been expected so far and it is all the more remarkable that this score was reached while the GDP fell during this period.
What's going on ?
Some sectors bet before others on the post-pandemic recovery, this is the case of construction for example with 20,000 more jobs in the third quarter.
They kept their employees while waiting for better days, they even hired for some.
It is a sign of confidence in the future, business leaders clearly believe in the beneficial effects of generalized vaccination to such an extent that the wave of layoffs that we feared for the end of the year is a threat that moves further and further away.
Now, all economists are revising their forecasts upwards.
Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, said on Thursday that she expected growth of 4.6% for the euro zone this year.
Economists at the Banque de France are also revising their growth prospects for France upwards.
But it's not just the numbers, we are also seeing whole sectors pick up in a tangible way.
In air transport, for example, the low cost subsidiary of Air France, Transavia plans to exceed its level of activity in summer 2019, before the pandemic therefore.
Tourists are also coming back in droves.
In Paris, for example, the booking rate for stays has increased by 400% compared to the same period last year; almost all indicators are now in the green.
Can we still imagine that this announced improvement does not take place?
There are basically two scenarios. The first is that of a new epidemic wave, a hypothesis that cannot be ruled out even if vaccination is affecting more and more people. The second scenario that brings us back to employment is that of a labor shortage. As we can see in the United States, 45% of SMEs say they have difficulty recruiting. This is explained by the generosity of the unemployment compensation system decided during the Covid but also by the strength of the rebound. If this is confirmed, it will translate into higher wages to encourage people to come back to work and therefore more inflation. This is the new fear of the moment.