CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year in May. Experts believe that
consumer prices are generally stable.
Our reporter Xiong Li Feng Qiyu
On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2021.
Data show that the CPI was generally stable in May, rising 1.3% year-on-year and down 0.2% month-on-month; PPI rose 9.0% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month.
Experts believe that the "scissors gap" between CPI and PPI has expanded again, indicating that there is a block in price transmission from PPI to CPI.
Looking forward to the whole year, CPI has a solid foundation to maintain stable operation, and the price control target can be achieved smoothly.
At present, we should continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply of bulk commodities and stabilizing prices to help small and micro enterprises cope with the pressure of rising raw material prices.
In May, all regions and departments continued to do a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and consumer prices were generally stable.
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this was mainly due to the expansion of the tail-end effect of price changes last year.
Among them, food prices changed from a 0.7% decline last month to an increase of 0.3%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.05 percentage points.
Non-food prices rose by 1.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 1.28 percentage points.
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the year-on-year increase in CPI in May is less than market expectations. It is related to two factors. One is that recent pig farmers have concentrated on "stretching" fat pigs on the market, resulting in a slightly larger drop in live pig prices; Fruit and vegetable prices weakened.
In addition, the local spread of new coronary pneumonia cases has a certain impact on related consumption such as the service industry.
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI fell by 0.2% in May, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Among them, food prices fell by 1.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.31 percentage points.
Non-food prices rose by 0.2%, the same rate of increase as last month, affecting the CPI's rise by about 0.16 percentage points.
"The CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month in May, mainly due to the continued decline of food prices in general, which played a role as a'stabilizer' in the recent period of price operations." Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Decision Consultation Department of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said that pork in May The price fell by 11% month-on-month; the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and other livestock and poultry meat also fell to varying degrees from the previous month; the prices of aquatic products and eggs rose slightly from the previous month.
Zhou Maohua believes that the current structural characteristics of inflation are obvious. The decline in pork prices has dragged down food prices. However, the prices of service products such as clothing, transportation, culture, education and entertainment have risen significantly, which generally reflects the continuous increase in domestic economic activity. Speed up the recovery of non-essential consumption.
In May, international crude oil, iron ore, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities prices rose sharply, domestic demand recovered steadily, and industrial product prices continued to rise.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 9.0%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.
From the perspective of price transmission mechanism, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the "scissor gap" between PPI and CPI increase in May continued to expand, and the scissors gap between the increase in the means of production and the means of subsistence also expanded. In addition to being affected by demand, it is also in line with the CPI. The structure has a certain relationship.
In the composition of my country's CPI, food prices account for a large proportion. As pork prices continue to fall, food prices are a drag on CPI.
From the perspective of CPI trends, Guo Liyan believes that looking forward to the latter part of this year, the production and supply of goods and services in the consumer sector will be abundant, especially in the agricultural and sideline food market, and the production capacity of industrial consumer products will be abundant. CPI has a solid foundation for maintaining stable operation and is expected to be moderate within a reasonable range. Volatile operation, the annual price control target can be achieved smoothly.
"Based on a comprehensive judgment, the macro policy should continue to be stable, continue to increase efforts to support the recovery of domestic demand, and enhance the vitality of the economy." Wen Bin said.
Xiong Li Feng Qiyu
Xiong Li Feng Qiyu