6 to 7% of French companies listed by the Banque de France could encounter difficulties when the public support measures put in place by the government to cope with the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic are stopped, according to a report. central bank assessment.

Between the end of December 2019 and the end of March 2021, the gross debt of companies increased by 224 billion euros and their cash flow by 215 billion, in particular due to the subscription of loans guaranteed by the State (PGE), according to a note from blog published on Friday by the French central bank.

“Careful monitoring” of these companies

But 14% of the companies studied have experienced both an increase in their debt and a decrease in their cash flow. "They must therefore be the subject of particular vigilance, sector by sector", warn the authors.

To make this assessment, they analyzed the annual accounts of more than 200,000 companies, including those with more than 750,000 euros in turnover, for which the institution establishes a rating each year, crucial for access to credit for these companies. companies.

"By excluding the best-rated companies before the crisis (from 3 ++ to 4 +), which have a sufficiently favorable situation to cope with the shock, as well as the worst-rated companies (ratings 6 to P), very fragile even before the crisis, we can estimate that around 6 to 7% of listed companies will have to be carefully monitored, ”the authors indicate.

Accommodation and catering particularly concerned

Unsurprisingly, certain sectors, such as accommodation and catering, are more concerned, where the proportion of companies to watch reaches 10 to 13%.

To avoid mass bankruptcies of companies, the government has put in place a specific mechanism, in particular to facilitate debt restructuring.

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