The inflation rate in the United States rose 5 percent in May, more than expected by many observers.

As in Europe, there is no shortage of reassuring voices in the United States that attribute temporary special effects to a strong influence on the inflation rate and warn not to overestimate the current figures.

Such special effects as the volatile prices for raw materials and food undoubtedly exist, and the extremely sharp rise in rental car prices may not continue in this way either.

But with every month for which the inflation rate shows a higher than expected value, the question arises whether those economists are not right who, in a combination of an expansionary monetary policy and an expansionary financial policy, of all things, is a cause of a very lively economic upturn see a not only temporary threat to the stability of the price level. Even the US Federal Reserve, which has long underestimated the risk of inflation several times in its history, is now showing that it has the problem on its radar.

In the United States, the economy is developing more dynamically than in the euro zone, but the European Central Bank, which has been very cautious for a long time, is now seeing signs of a sustained economic upturn. The question of whether, with the gradual overcoming of the pandemic, the time to reduce the bond purchases decided as part of the pandemic program was, as President Christine Lagarde admitted with laudable transparency, controversial in the Central Bank Council. Once again, the majority of the council prevailed with their demand for unchanged very high bond purchases.

It remains to be seen whether this majority will still be there in autumn. If, thanks to a good tourist season, the upswing in southern Europe should also consolidate and the central bank in the United States aims to reduce its bond purchases, the ECB could also signal a gradual departure from its policy. Because the inflation rate will be higher in autumn than it is today.