On Wednesday, June 9, the Russian currency strengthened at a record on the Moscow Exchange.
At the beginning of the day, the dollar rate decreased by 0.44% - to 71.98 rubles.
The last time a similar indicator could be observed was on July 28, 2020.
At the same time, the euro rate fell by 0.39% - to 87.69 rubles.
The indicator became the lowest since March 17, 2021.
The national currency was supported by a record rise in oil prices in the world, said Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at the Alpari information and analytical center.
On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude on the ICE exchange in London rose 0.8% to $ 72.8 per barrel.
The achieved value turned out to be the highest since May 2019.
“Today the ruble, to a certain extent, is still a commodity currency and therefore still reacts to noticeable fluctuations in oil prices.
In this regard, fluctuations in the cost of energy carriers are important, ”Bodrova emphasized in a conversation with RT.
In addition, the positive dynamics of the ruble is associated with investors' expectations regarding the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank.
Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments, told RT about this.
“The players of the financial market are waiting for the key rate increase at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank.
Already this Friday, June 11, the regulator can raise the borrowing rate from the current 5% to 5.5% per annum.
I would like to note that the growth of the interest rate is traditionally positive for the ruble exchange rate, ”noted Vasily Karpunin.
As the experts interviewed by RT explained, the expected increase in the key rate immediately to 5.5% per annum is necessary to curb inflation in Russia.
So, according to Rosstat, in May the annual growth rate of consumer prices in the country exceeded 6% - for the first time since October 2016.
In addition to slowing down inflation, an increase in the key rate in the future should lead to an inflow of investments into the federal loan bond market (OFZ).
At the same time, the active purchase of government securities by investors traditionally leads to a rise in the ruble price.
Recall that OFZs are debt obligations guaranteed by the Russian government.
Financial market participants buy securities issued by the Ministry of Finance and receive a stable income from them.
In other words, holders of government bonds lend their money to the Russian economy.
The yield on debt securities directly depends on the interest rate set in the country.
Thus, in the event of an increase in the percentage of borrowing by the Central Bank, investments in OFZs will become even more profitable for investors in comparison with the purchase of US and European government securities, experts say.
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The weakening of geopolitical risks also plays in favor of the ruble on the eve of the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden.
Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker for global research, shared this opinion in an interview with RT.
Note that the talks between the leaders of the two countries are scheduled for June 16.
“They expect from the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States, if not a restart of relations, then at least a truce and a pause in the unfolding of the sanctions spiral.
Along with this, literally the day before, a SWIFT representative made a statement about the absence of any plans to disconnect Moscow from the system of bank payments, since this is not beneficial to anyone.
Such news also helps to reduce geopolitical risks, ”said Kochetkov.
According to Anna Bodrova's estimate, in the near future the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within the range of 71.5-74 rubles.
In turn, according to Andrei Kochetkov, the persistence of relatively high oil prices, as well as an increase in the key rate to 5.5% and higher in the future, may lead to the consolidation of the dollar in the range of 70-73 rubles, and the euro rate - near 86- 89 rubles.
According to Vasily Karpunin, by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate may still rise to 74-75 rubles, but in case of a stable geopolitical background, the indicator can drop to 70-72 rubles.
At the same time, the strengthening of the national currency should have a positive effect on the situation with prices in Russia, the specialist is sure.
“The rise in price of the Russian one can slow down inflation.
Thus, the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro will lead to a decrease in the cost of imported goods, which occupy a significant part in the consumption of citizens, "Karpunin emphasized.
Pyotr Pushkaryov, chief analyst of TeleTrade Group, adheres to a similar assessment.
According to the expert's forecast, in the event of successful negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, the dollar rate by the beginning of July may fall below the psychological mark of 70 rubles.
This state of affairs will slow down the rise in prices for a number of imported goods, including cars and electronics, the expert said.
“If we talk about prices for Russian products, then the dynamics of the ruble will no longer play a decisive role.
In this context, government measures should be decisive for the allocation of targeted subsidies to producers, as well as the provision of loans and tax benefits to farmers and processing plants, "Pushkarev added in an interview with RT.