Iran: in Vienna, new round of nuclear negotiations against the backdrop of the presidential election
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Austria on June 7, 2021. REUTERS - LEONHARD FOEGER
Text by: Nicolas Falez Follow
5 mins
A presidential election will take place in Iran on June 18, as this week in Vienna begins a new round of negotiations to try to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
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Economic issues dominated the
first televised debate
between the seven Iranian presidential candidates on Saturday, June 5. A vital subject for many Iranians, in a country suffocated by the sanctions reinstated by Donald Trump when he decided in 2018 to withdraw the United States from the Vienna Agreement.
But, in the exchanges between candidates (5 ultra-conservatives, 2 moderates), no mention of the negotiations organized in Vienna since last April to try to breathe new life into the agreement guaranteeing the civilian character of the nuclear work of the Islamic Republic. .
"
We cannot say that the president determines Iran's nuclear policy
," said academic Mehdi Zakerian, who teaches human rights and international relations at the University of Tehran.
"
The subject is up to the National Security Council which indirectly depends on the guide of the Islamic Republic
".
►
See also Presidential election in Iran: the Supreme Guide asks to ignore calls for boycott
Return of the United States to the 2015 Accord?
The new Iranian president elected on June 18 (the 25th in the event of a second round) will therefore not determine the main orientations in this matter. The ballot should make it possible to designate a successor to the moderate Hassan Rohani. It was during his first term that the 2015 nuclear deal was concluded. And it was during his second term, in 2018, that Donald Trump's United States left this agreement.
Now it is Joe Biden who is in the White House and he wants to revive the agreement, the principle of which is simple: it is to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is a civilian program, which cannot not be used to make the atomic bomb.
The problem is, Iran hit back when the United States left the deal: Tehran ran its centrifuges, and its nuclear work today is dangerously outside the scope of a civilian program.
An agreement "
at your fingertips
"
It is in an attempt to revive this agreement that the signatories have been meeting for a few weeks in Vienna, Austria: Iran, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany… in addition to the United States who therefore wish to return to the agreement. . A sixth round of negotiations begins this week and the puzzle is who takes the first step: Iran to resume its nuclear obligations? Or the United States to lift the sanctions?
"The
more we go into detail, the more we realize that the devil is nestled everywhere
," notes Benjamin Hautecouverture, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, who lists the sensitive subjects: "
What sanctions will be lifted by the United States ? Can the Iranians be sure that the United States will not withdraw from the deal again? Can the agreement be designed in a more sustainable way than that of 2015, in particular by including the question of missiles? What to do with the new generation centrifuges developed for two years by Iran: destroy them or put them away?
". According to Benjamin Hautecouverture, “E
ach step, you need an agreement to reach the next
".
Last week, a European official said that a deal was "
within reach
".
Will it be concluded and announced before the first round of presidential elections in Iran on June 18?
IAEA concerns
While Iran and its interlocutors are resuming their discussions this week on this meticulous choreography of de-escalation, the International Atomic Energy Agency is holding another meeting this Monday, June 7, still in the Austrian capital.
The IAEA is monitoring Iran's situation closely and in its latest report
reiterated its concerns
.
Iran now has a stockpile of enriched uranium 16 times greater than the limit set by the 2015 Accord. Concerns too, as there remain gray areas over Iran's past nuclear work.
►
See also: The agreement to monitor Iran's nuclear activities has expired
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