Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, May 25th, after nearly three years, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once again rose above the 6.4 mark.
According to Wind, as of press time, offshore RMB/USD hit a high of 6.3947 since mid-June 2018; onshore RMB/USD hit a high of 6.4017 since mid-June 2018.
Source: Wind
In addition, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 25th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was quoted at 6.4283, an increase of 125 basis points.
Since April, the renminbi has returned to a strong trend, and the correlation between the spot exchange rate of the dollar against the renminbi and the dollar index has improved.
The renminbi exchange rate depreciated from February to March, and the spot exchange rate of the dollar against the renminbi rose from 6.45 on February 25 to 6.57 on March 30.
Subsequently, the renminbi returned to the appreciation channel. As of May 20, the spot exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the renminbi recorded 6.44, down about 1.98% from the 2021 high.
On May 21, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council convened its 51st meeting, requesting further promotion of the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level.
When answering questions from reporters on the RMB exchange rate, Vice Governor Liu Guoqiang of the Central Bank pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has risen and depreciated, floating in both directions, and has maintained basic stability at a reasonable and equilibrium level.
At present, my country’s foreign exchange market is autonomously balanced, the RMB exchange rate is determined by the market, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable.
The future trend of the RMB exchange rate will continue to depend on market supply and demand and changes in the international financial market, and two-way fluctuations will become the norm.
How does the RMB exchange rate go in the future?
Mingming, deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute, believes that with the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the renminbi and the continuous opening of the financial market, the two-way volatility of the renminbi exchange rate will be strengthened, and the renminbi exchange rate will become more market-oriented.
The RMB exchange rate still has strong momentum, and the USD/CNY exchange rate may fall to 6.2.
Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed that the domestic positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate will continue to play a role in the second half of the year, but the uncertainty of the external market will cause the RMB to show more two-way fluctuations and wide fluctuations.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)