If the federal election on September 26th were a stock exchange and the party of the Greens a share, then it would be the darling of investors and analysts.
A real growth title.
A bit like Tesla: the underdog who dupes the established competition and makes its shareholders rich.
The eco party won a modest 8.9 percent of the vote in the last election four years ago.
It only ended up in sixth place and has been the smallest parliamentary group since then.
This autumn, on the other hand, the opinion polls trust the Greens to be in a neck-and-neck race with the Union for chancellorship.
If it really turns out that way, they'll reap a hefty political return.
Marcus Theurer
Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
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The comparison, of course, lags.
A political election is not a stock exchange, and the green candidate for Chancellor Annalena Baerbock is not Elon Musk.
Another question is, of course, whether election day will leave investors cold in a good four months - or whether it is now time to think about what a green federal government means for one's own share portfolio.
If you take the election polls of the past few weeks as a benchmark, then it is difficult to imagine a government coalition for the next legislative period without the color green.
But what consequences would a green federal government have for the stock market?
Financial market professionals initially weigh it down: It's not that wild, the outcome of federal elections has never been that important for share prices.
For many DAX companies, the home market is just one of many sales markets.
The food delivery service Delivery Hero is also on the road in Latin America, and Volkswagen's best customers are in China.
It all sounds very plausible, but then the investment strategists came up with a few reasons why the election result can also be relevant from an investor's point of view.
But first things first: First of all, a good number of investors should look with a certain uneasiness at the prospect that the Greens will be sitting at the Berlin cabinet table at the end of this year and maybe even the Federal Chancellery will have a new landlady named Baerbock.
The stock market is pure capitalism - and the eco party has had a rather difficult relationship with it since it was founded.
Even if the green mainstream does not want to completely overcome the capitalist economic order right away, as, for example, Anna Peters, the federal spokeswoman for the Green Youth, demands.
Fear of the left alliance
So how dangerous are the Greens for the stock market? "It will make a huge difference for investors whether the Greens become junior partners in a government or the strongest force," says Martin Lück, investment strategist for the German market at Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager. A horror idea for some investors would be a green-red-red coalition with the SPD and the left. Lück puts it more diplomatically: "In a left-wing alliance under green leadership, possible regulatory changes would be cause for concern for shareholders," he says.