(Economic Observation) The RMB exchange rate has hit a new high in the past three years. Why is the financial sector intensively "calling names" at this time?

  China News Service, Beijing, May 24 (Reporter Xia Bin) After hitting the highest value in nearly three years, the RMB exchange rate has attracted great attention from China's financial sector.

The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council and the Central Bank successively "named" the RMB exchange rate within three days. What is the reason for such a intensive statement?

Data map: A staff member of a bank in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province counts currency.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

  According to the observation of a reporter from China News Agency, since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate trend has basically been divided into three stages. From January to February, it fluctuates on the line and down at 6.45. The depreciation in March is more obvious. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar onshore was on March 30. Once fell to 6.5793, hitting the lowest point of the year. Since April, the RMB exchange rate has started to fluctuate and rise, and it rose to 6.4103 on May 10, the highest value in the past three years.

  Why is the official intensive "calling" at this time?

Some people believe that in order to cope with the increase in the price of imported commodities, the RMB exchange rate should be further appreciated.

  However, as China has promoted market-oriented exchange rate reforms in recent years, the central bank has basically withdrawn from normalized interventions in the RMB exchange rate, which means that the central bank’s tolerance for the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate has increased significantly. The changes in the RMB exchange rate now mainly depend on Market supply and demand, not the central bank.

In this context, the above-mentioned views are not in line with the general direction of exchange rate market reform.

  On May 21, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council convened its 51st meeting, requesting further promotion of the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level.

  Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, answered reporters' questions on the RMB exchange rate on the 23rd.

He pointed out that at present, China's foreign exchange market is autonomously balanced, the RMB exchange rate is determined by the market, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable.

  Liu Guoqiang said that the People's Bank of China has perfected a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. This system is suitable for China's exchange rate system arrangements at present and for a period of time in the future.

The People's Bank of China will focus on expected guidance, play the role of exchange rate adjustment macroeconomic and automatic balance of payments stabilizer, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level.

  Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, believes that the central bank is sending a signal to the market. It is still an important task for the central bank to pay attention to communicating with the market and maintaining a certain degree of management fluctuation. "Whether it is currently or in the future, (the central bank) will not let the renminbi be allowed. No matter the exchange rate."

  Tan Yaling, president of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, also pointed out that the financial sector's outreach at this time is also a way of correcting the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate.

The unilateral appreciation of the renminbi has caused great pressure and panic. In particular, some people unilaterally expect the appreciation of the renminbi, which does not conform to the laws of the market or the actual situation in China.

  How does the RMB exchange rate go in the future?

"The future trend of the RMB exchange rate will continue to depend on market supply and demand and changes in the international financial market. Two-way fluctuations have become the norm." Liu Guoqiang gave such a judgment.

  In the short term, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that the domestic positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate will continue to play a role in the second half of the year, but the uncertainty of the external market will cause the RMB to show more two-way fluctuations and wide fluctuations.

  He pointed out that, on the one hand, the global economic recovery is accelerating, and the differences in economic recovery between China and major economies will gradually converge, and the supporting role of the RMB exchange rate may be weakened.

On the other hand, as the U.S. economic recovery accelerates, the Fed may reduce its asset purchase plan in the fourth quarter of this year, U.S. bond yields may continue to rise, the U.S. dollar index will bottom out, and the international financial market will usher in a new round of shocks.

  On the long-term trend, some people believe that the Fed once again implements an extraordinary easing policy. In the future, the US dollar will enter a weak cycle in the medium and long term. With the weakening of the US dollar, non-US currencies, including the RMB, are expected to strengthen in the medium and long term and enter appreciation. aisle.

  Zhou Chengjun, director of the Institute of Financial Research of the People's Bank of China, said recently that in general, the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the medium and long term.

This is not only the result of China’s sustained economic growth and the continuous increase in the relative purchasing power of the renminbi, but also one of the consequences of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and continuous expansion of its balance sheet. Moreover, empirical data also shows that most countries that successfully overcome the middle-income trap have a per capita income of more than US$10,000. , Its currency will continue to appreciate against the U.S. dollar.

(Finish)