The year 2034 could mark the turning point.
If the market for meat substitute products continues to grow and meat production continues to shrink as in previous years, tofu sausages, pea escalopes and the like could overtake their animal models for the first time.
It is still difficult to imagine, as countless pork or beef steaks are going over the counter these days to be sizzled on the grill.
But the trend towards substitute products continues, as the new nutrition report that the Federal Ministry of Agriculture presented in Berlin on Wednesday shows.
Stefanie Diemand
Editor in business.
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Julia Löhr
Business correspondent in Berlin.
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As it does every year, the market research institute Forsa asked 1,000 citizens about their shopping and eating habits. The most striking result: the proportion of vegetarians has doubled within a year, from 5 to 10 percent. The proportion of vegans rose from 1 to 2 percent. By contrast, the number of people who eat sausage and meat every day has fallen in recent years. Whereas in 2015 it was 34 percent of those surveyed, the proportion is now only 26 percent. Almost one in three respondents meanwhile "often" buys plant-based alternatives to animal products. These are especially popular with younger people. In the 14 to 29 age group, 17 percent eat such products every day.
“Curiosity plays a role,” said Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner (CDU) about the new plant eaters.
She was satisfied with the development.
"Better less meat, but better quality meat," she recommended.
Forsa managing director Manfred Güllner pointed out that shopping and eating habits differ depending on age, place of residence and education.
According to the survey, the younger, the more urban and the higher the level of education, the more popular meat substitutes are.
From niche to mass market
For Germans, the most important selection criterion when choosing food is still taste, for 96 percent it comes first, followed by regionality. The calorie content is supposedly only decisive for 54 percent, the price only for 48 percent. What Klöckner should like: 42 percent of those surveyed said they would agree to a price premium of up to 5 euros for a kilogram of meat. The ministry is currently working on proposals to increase the price of meat in a targeted manner in order to improve the keeping conditions with the income. Doesn't quite fit the Forsa survey that in Germany still less than 5 percent of the meat sold comes from organic farms. At the supermarket checkout, the willingness to pay is apparently not as great as in surveys.
Plant-based meat substitute products are also still a niche market: According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office Destatis, 83.7 million kilograms of plant-based meat substitute products were produced in Germany last year. That is 39 percent more than in the previous year, but conventional meat production was many times higher at 7.8 million tons. The latter, however, probably passed its zenith in 2016, since then production has declined by an average of 1.4 percent annually.