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World

trade

has recovered to unexpected levels in the first quarter of 2021, surpassing those prior to the

Covid-19

pandemic

, a rebound driven by trade in goods, but not in services, which continue to suffer the effect of the crisis. sanitary.

The

trade in goods

increased in the first three months of this year by 3% compared to the first quarter of 2019 and were related in some way to the pandemic which recorded better results, according to

a study of sectors

Agency UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

.

This entity has published this Wednesday updated data on the progress of global trade, which reveals that it increased by 10% in the first quarter, compared to the same period in 2020, and 4% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

Exports from

East Asia

, particularly

China

, have been the most reinvigorated, thanks to the rapidity with which the countries of that region controlled the expansion of the

coronavirus

, which allowed them to quickly take advantage of the demand that was created in around products that had to do with the pandemic.

The analysis indicates that in the rest of the regions of the world the recovery has been slower, although it does not provide specific data.

16% growth at the end of the year

UNCTAD economists estimate that the recovery will continue in the second quarter of this year and that world trade could close the year with growth of 16%, although they acknowledge that there are many uncertainties involved.

Already in the second quarter, it is estimated that the value of global trade, including

goods and services

, would reach 6.6 trillion dollars, 31% more compared to the lowest point of the same period of 2020 and 3% higher than the levels pre-pandemic.

If compared to a normal period, such as 2019, the greatest progression in trade between last January and March has been observed in

agricultural products

(18%) and

pharmaceuticals

(27%), in

telecommunications

equipment

(20%),

machinery

(19%) and

minerals

(33%).

The only sector in which the drop has been maintained is that related to

transport

, particularly air, with a drop of 34% compared to two years before and 19% compared to the first part of 2020.

Changes in consumer habits

All of this largely reflects changes in consumer habits during the pandemic, which led to increased demand

for health products

,

digital services

,

communications

and

technological equipment

to work from home.

Except for the transport industry, hard hit by travel restrictions, UNCTAD sees an economic recovery this year, supported largely by fiscal stimulus packages in developed countries.

The increase in the price of

raw materials will

also contribute to the increase in the value of trade this year.

China and the US, at the helm of the recovery

It is clear that the recovery will not have the same strength everywhere and that

China

and the

United States

will be the ones who will take the reins and the countries whose economies are integrated with theirs will be positively dragged by the first.

This will be the case of the countries of

East Asia

,

Mexico

and

Canada

, states UNCTAD.

Its experts assume that governments will use all possible public policies to stimulate the recovery of their economies, but considering the current political frictions between various trading powers, they believe that this could be reflected in restrictive trade measures.

Another risk that is identified is that the

massive

indebtedness

that countries have had to resort to to sustain their economies during the pandemic will result in financial instability.

It is warned that any increase in interest rates would increase the pressure on public and private debt, and would have a negative impact on investment and international trade flows.

This would be particularly true in the case of developing countries, which have very limited room for maneuver in fiscal matters.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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See links of interest

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