China News Service, Beijing, May 18 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Li Daokui, Dean of the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice, Tsinghua University, said on the 18th that China's economic growth is expected to slow down in stages in the next five years, showing a "U-shape". Trend, the industry will undergo deep and large-scale restructuring.
In his speech at the 2021 Schneider Electric Innovation Summit held on the same day, Li Daokui said that China's economic growth rate may show a "U-shaped" trend in the next five years, that is, it will first decline and then gradually rise, generally at around 5%-5.5%.
However, taking into account the fact that the epidemic has led to a low base in 2020, China's economic growth rate is expected to reach more than 8% in 2021.
He believes that with the slowdown of economic growth and the penetration of technological elements into various industries, China's industries will undergo deep and large-scale restructuring in the next five years.
Some industries and enterprises will feel greater pressure, the market shrinks, the growth rate of operating income declines, and they face inevitable adjustments, exits or reorganizations.
At the same time, as low-carbon development has become a general trend, the green industry will usher in greater development opportunities in the future, and terminal electrification and green power generation will become the future direction.
Last year, under the impetus of China, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) was officially signed and it is planned to take effect next year.
China also made it clear that it will actively consider joining the "Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (CPTPP) and is making various preparations for this.
In Li Daokui's view, another major change that will take place in China's economy in the next five years is that more foreign investment and trade agreements will be signed intensively, even to a "surprising" level.
This aspect is a manifestation of China's active promotion of global trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, maintaining an open world economy, and assuming the responsibilities of a major country. It is also a practical need to force the reform of domestic government departments and industry enterprises.
He predicts that with the emergence of these new trends in the economic field, a series of changes will occur in China’s finance in the future: the financial ecosystem around the promotion of innovation will be more active and sound; debt restructuring may become the focus of the future; aiming to support green low The long-term debt of the carbon industry will be better developed; government debt will be more transparent; RMB appreciation will become the general trend.
In this regard, enterprises should make arrangements as soon as possible and be prepared.
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