China-Singapore Jingwei Client, May 18 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest housing price data.
Has the property market cooled down?
What is the future trend of housing prices?
Come and take a look.
New house price increases in cities stop "four consecutive increases" and house price increases expand
Data map: sand table of the sales department.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
From the "Golden Three" to the "Silver Four", Baidao's regulation and control has kept the property market at a high level.
On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April.
In terms of new houses, 62 cities rose month-on-month, which was the same as last month, but stopped the “four consecutive growth”; 3 cities remained flat, with an increase of 1 from the previous month; 5 cities fell, with a decrease of 1 from the previous month.
Among them, Chongqing led the way with 1.4% growth, followed by Guangzhou, Wuhan, Haikou and Kunming.
In terms of second-hand housing, 54 cities rose month-on-month, with a decrease of 3 from the previous month; 2 cities remained flat, with a decrease of 1 from the previous month; 14 cities fell, with an increase of 4 from the previous month.
In terms of house price growth, the month-on-month increase in the price of new homes in various tier cities in April increased slightly, while the month-on-month increase in second-hand housing was little changed.
Specifically, the sales prices of new homes in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.6%, 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.
The sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.8% month-on-month, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose 1.2%, 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively, while Shenzhen remained flat.
The sales prices of new and second-hand houses in 31 second-tier cities increased by 0.6% and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price of new homes in 35 third-tier cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same as the previous month.
Data map: the property market.
Photo by Wan Keyi, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed that although hot cities have recently tightened their policies, from the data of 70 cities, there is hype in some cities with relatively loose policies, and housing prices continue to rebound.
This also requires that on the basis of the existing regulation, further regulation of some cities that are showing signs of rising will be further regulated.
"From a ranking point of view, Chongqing has the largest increase, and there has indeed been a lot of speculation about housing listings recently. In particular, the overheating of land transactions in Chongqing has attracted attention due to the double centralization of underground supply. There is still speculation in Guangzhou recently, but it is expected that subsequent regulatory policies will digest , The price increase will narrow. For Wuhan, it has begun to be restless recently, including specific areas and sectors such as Optics Valley. For Haikou, it is necessary to be alert to risks such as a bottom rebound in housing prices after the third anniversary of the global purchase restriction." Yan Yuejin further pointed out.
"It is worth noting that Chongqing completed its first centralized land auction on April 28. Real estate companies are more enthusiastic about bidding. Many land parcels were sold at high premiums, and even the highest floor price record in Chongqing was refreshed. The popularity is evident." Zhuge Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Research Center for Finding Housing Data, also believes that the concentration of local auctions has boosted the popularity of the Chongqing property market to a certain extent.
According to Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, Chongqing led the hotspot city for the first time compared with the previous quarter, showing that with the gradual upgrade of regulation, the housing market has spread from first-tier cities to second-tier hotspots and general second-tier cities.
The cities with the highest growth rate are basically weak second-tier cities.
The first- and second-tier hotspots were controlled, but the non-hot-spot second-tier began to rise.
One-month Hundred Roads regulation has brought down the high transaction levels of the property market
Image source: "Dawei sees the property market" WeChat ID
According to calculations from the National Bureau of Statistics, the area of commercial housing sold in April was 142,979,500 square meters, down 23.31% from the previous month.
Among them, the residential sales area was 128.71 million square meters, a decrease of 23.03% from the previous month.
According to the statistics of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in April, more than 30 cities introduced new regulation and control policies. The cumulative number of regulation and control measures has reached nearly 100. The regulation and control have become more frequent. Cities such as Guangzhou, Hefei, Nantong, Xuzhou, and Ningbo have expanded the scope of purchase restrictions, increased housing land and security. The supply of housing, strengthening the management of housing loans, and strengthening the management and control of the housing leasing market have strengthened their efforts to promote the stability of market expectations.
Wang Xiaoqian, an analyst at the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that in April, under the background of intensive local regulation, the policy effect appeared, and the sales growth rate fell from the March high.
From a regional perspective, sales growth in various regions also slowed down.
"In May, it is expected that the'Xiaoyangchun' effect will continue to weaken, and the growth rate of sales indicators will continue to fall." Wang Xiaoqiu gave such a judgment.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, predicts that the rising trend of housing prices in the first half of the year will continue, but the tightening and tightening of regulatory policies is expected to stabilize the market.
Including Shenzhen and Shanghai, they have begun to regulate the prices of second-hand houses and operating loans, and the subsequent market is expected to gradually stabilize.
According to data from 70 cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen ranked in the top 30 for the month-on-month increase in new house prices in April.
"Since May, the second-hand housing market is expected to weaken as a whole, and house prices will stabilize in the future." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, also pointed out that the impact of centralized land supply transactions in Chongqing and other cities in late April on market expectations has already appeared. Since Beijing and other key cities have a high degree of enthusiasm for centralized land supply transactions, we need to be wary of the subsequent transfer of land market enthusiasm to the new house market and further transmission to the entire residential market, which will cause the market to heat up.
Li Yujia believes that at present, credit lines in hot cities have been tightened across the board, second-hand housing loans are being collected even tighter, and some banks have even suspended second-hand housing loans.
According to this logic, the second-hand housing market is expected to cool down in the second half of the year.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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