Why was the non-ferrous metal industry "being happy" in the first quarter,
our reporter Cui Guoqiang
"In the first quarter of this year, the profits of non-ferrous metal enterprises above designated size reached a record high in the past ten years, with a total profit of 65.18 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4 times year-on-year, and an average increase of 70.3% in two years." At the meeting, Jia Mingxing, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, used "joyful" to describe the operating situation of the non-ferrous metal industry in the first quarter.
In the first quarter of this year, the production of non-ferrous metals maintained a rapid growth trend, fixed asset investment increased recovery, the import and export volume of major non-ferrous metal varieties achieved year-on-year growth, and non-ferrous metal prices in the domestic and foreign markets continued to fluctuate at a high level.
Why can the non-ferrous metal industry achieve a "blooming" situation?
In Jia Mingxing's view, there are many factors that affect the price of non-ferrous metals, but supply and demand are always the first.
The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the real economy is relatively small. my country has done a good job in the defense of the epidemic, the economy has recovered quickly, and the rigid demand for non-ferrous metals is increasing. Therefore, the price of non-ferrous metals has risen and corporate profits have reached a record high.
Another factor for non-ferrous metal prices to rise is the high operation of global financial markets, loose currency liquidity and exchange rate changes, which form strong support for metal prices.
Smelting costs are another factor in the price changes of related non-ferrous metals.
Recently, the price of crude oil has risen and the cost of non-ferrous metal smelting has risen, and the price of non-ferrous metals has risen accordingly.
The non-ferrous metal industry is positioned as a basic raw material industry. When the price is good, the whole industry is "being happy" and everyone makes a profit.
However, some problems are hidden.
While price increases have brought huge profits to the upstream of the industry, they have also increased pressure on downstream processing companies. Price fluctuations have made it difficult to guarantee processing profits, and at the same time, it has also inhibited the expansion of downstream non-ferrous metals to a certain extent.
"Many downstream companies, such as the home appliance industry, have a small output and will find alternatives when the materials are expensive, which is not conducive to the development of the non-ferrous metal industry." Jia Mingxing said.
At the same time, during the development of the entire non-ferrous metal industry, there are still a lot of debts to be paid.
"The non-ferrous metal industry must take precautions for the healthy development of the industry, and actively remedy and repay historical debts." Jia Mingxing believes that the rapid development of non-ferrous metal enterprises requires insufficient investment in safety and environmental protection.
"In the second quarter of this year, my country's non-ferrous metal industry continues to maintain a positive trend. It is preliminarily estimated that the growth rate of the non-ferrous metal industry in 2021 will show a trend of'high in the front and stable in the back'." Jia Mingxing believes that the overall production of non-ferrous metals in the second quarter remained stable Growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed, and the annual growth rate is expected to return to about 5%.
The prices of major non-ferrous metals in the second quarter will remain high and volatile, and the possibility of a callback in the second half of the year is not ruled out, but the annual average price for the whole year will be significantly better than the average annual price in 2020.
The profit level of the first quarter will be maintained in the second quarter, and the annual profit is expected to reach or approach the profit level of 2017.
The fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry in the second quarter is still expected to maintain a significant growth trend, and is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year, but the possibility of substantial growth is unlikely.
The export of non-ferrous metal products in the second quarter is expected to maintain the export level of the first quarter, but it is unlikely that exports will rebound sharply.
Our reporter Cui Guoqiang