China News Service, Beijing, May 6 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The "Rural Green Paper: Analysis and Forecast of China's Rural Economic Situation (2020~2021)" released in Beijing on the 6th pointed out that it will be further realized as the pig production capacity is fully restored. Growth, China's pork production will increase significantly.
It is expected that the supply of pork in China in 2021 will be close to the highest level in history, and the overall price will continue to fall.
The report jointly issued by the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Press pointed out that at the end of 2020, there will be 406.5 million live pigs in China, an increase of 96.09 million heads from the end of 2019, an increase of 31.0%, although these are in 2020 The vast majority of farmed live pigs will become pork production in 2021.
The increase in pig production capacity, the high profitability of pig breeding, and a series of preferential policies implemented by the state on pig breeding will help mobilize market players to expand the enthusiasm of pig breeding.
The report believes that in 2021, although pig breeding is still facing uncertain factors such as African swine fever, due to high returns, epidemic prevention measures in place, and the accumulation of experience in dealing with African swine fever in various localities in the past few years, China's pig production will increase significantly. .
It is predicted that pork production will be about 50 million tons, an increase of about 8 million tons over 2020, an increase of more than 20%.
At the same time, considering that the international market for imported pork has opened up, the price gap between international and domestic pork prices is large, and the momentum for imported pork is strong, the report estimates that China will import more than 6 million tons of pork and offal in 2021, an increase of more than 5% over 2020.
In this way, the total amount of imported pork and offal and domestically produced pork will exceed 56 million tons, and the annual pork supply will be close to the highest level in history.
Nevertheless, due to the accelerated upgrade of food consumption by lower-income groups, rural construction has effectively improved rural logistics conditions, farmers' potential demand for pork consumption has been continuously released, and the market demand for pork has significantly exceeded the historical high level, so pork supply and demand are tight The relationship is not expected to change fundamentally.
Regarding pork prices, the research team of the Academy of Social Sciences believes that considering the expansion of domestic live pig production capacity and the increase in imports, it will help ease the tension between supply and demand in the domestic market and promote the price of live pigs and pork to fall from high levels, but relative to the increasing demand. Said that the supply and demand relationship between live pigs and pork is very unlikely to enter a loose state in 2021, so the prices of live pigs and pork will fluctuate at a high level this year.