At the 2021 Shanghai International Auto Show, among the three "new car-making forces" in China, only Ideal (LI.US) remained silent and did not hold a press conference.
The number of single-vehicle deliveries is the first, but the growth rate of total deliveries has begun to lag behind; the earliest profit, but the cumulative decline in stock price, and the lowest market value; the only company that takes the “increasing program” route is considered a transition technology. These contradictions are concentrated in ideals. Body.
As more and more technology companies and traditional car companies enter the new energy vehicle track, industry competition has become more and more severe. The ideal car that once used "no choice" to win a precise customer base is in the increasingly cruel industry struggle. How long can you run?
On April 26, a person from Ideal Auto replied to the Red Star Capital Board, “I think any form of energy is a transition. Isn’t it a transition for more than 100 years of fuel vehicles, and pure electricity is not necessarily the end.”
Weilai, Xiaopeng release new car ideals to remain silent
During the Shanghai International Auto Show, thousands of auto companies held 138 grand press conferences to compete for the best.
Among the top three new forces, NIO (NIO.US) brought ET7 and Xiaopeng (XPEV.US) brought P5, both held new car launch conferences; only ideals did not participate in the game in a low-key manner, nor did they launch new ones. product.
Up to now, the ideal product is still only the ideal ONE product; in contrast, counting the new cars released this time, Weilai has 4 products and Xiaopeng has 3 products.
As more and more technology companies and traditional car companies enter the new energy vehicle track, the industry battle is getting more and more serious.
If new energy players are divided into three categories, there are roughly industry pioneers represented by Tesla (TSLA.US), traditional car giants that are transforming, and new car-making power entrepreneurial companies.
Separately, in the current Chinese market, the pioneer Tesla is falling into the center of public opinion; traditional car companies and ships are difficult to turn around. The transformation of new energy vehicles not only needs to compete with other companies, but also has the same positioning as fuel vehicles under its own brand. "Fighting" internally, while also facing the problem of weak brand impression.
Even the 2020 sales runner-up Wuling Hongguang MINI is still being questioned by safety issues such as no airbags.
It is under this background that the new power car manufacturers have gained a window of development.
China Automobile Manufacturers Association Jia Xinguang previously pointed out in an interview with the Red Star Capital Bureau that "After traditional cars entered the industry, the new energy war has just begun."
So what are the results of the three new car-building forces running to the present?
What are their respective moats, are they all reliable?
Analyzing their product layout, financial report data, and capital performance may reveal some clues.
Ideal silence
Is the ideal future pure electricity or extended range?
This problem has never disappeared since the initial development of the ideal.
In the past few years, there is still only an ideal car company that takes "extended program" as its flagship product.
"Extended program" is the only weapon "no choice" is the most advantageous moat
The so-called "extended range electric drive technology" refers to the use of an engine and a generator to convert oil into electricity, and then output the electricity to the drive motor to drive the vehicle, and the surplus electricity will be charged into the battery.
The advantage of this is that it solves the pain points of long charging time and mileage anxiety of pure electric vehicles, and brings traditional fuel vehicles to the advantages of saving fuel and money, as well as the smooth acceleration and fast speed of pure electric drive.
However, because the extended-range electric drive technology is a technology between pure electric and traditional fuel vehicles, it is complicated and relatively poor in emission reduction, so most car companies regard this as a transitional solution, and few people do it.
There are few people participating, which leaves consumers with no choice in this range, which instead achieves their ideals, and this just shows that pure electric new energy vehicles still have a way to go in the future.
Some netizens summed up the ideal success in one sentence, that is, "Eating the dividends of the transition period is essentially a bet that China's charging pile infrastructure is not as fast as expected."
So how long is the transition period?
First of all, in terms of policy, the dividend may have come to an end.
On February 10, Shanghai issued the "Implementation Measures of Shanghai Municipality to Encourage the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles". Through differentiated arrangements, it has increased its support for pure electric vehicles, clarifying that from January 1, 2023, consumers will be Those who purchase or accept plug-in hybrid vehicles will no longer issue special license plates.
In Beijing, hybrid vehicles can only be purchased with fuel vehicle indicators.
"I think any form of energy is a transition. Isn't it a transition for more than 100 years of fuel vehicles, and pure electricity is not necessarily the end." On April 26, an ideal car-related person replied to the Red Star Capital Bureau, "I did not deny that it is not a transition. , But I don’t know how long this transition period will be. I can only take the example of a fuel vehicle."
Two lines developing in parallel
Extended range and pure electricity
I don't know how long the transition period is ideal, but in fact, it is also deploying pure electricity.
In the fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call, Ideal CEO Li Xiang said that starting from 2022, Ideal Auto will release at least two new products to the market every year, and will deliver pure electric products in 2023.
Ideally, it also confirmed to the Red Star Capital Bureau that extended range and pure electricity are two parallel development lines for the company.
Not long ago, Li Xiang said that Ideal Auto’s R&D headquarters in Shanghai is almost ready. The address is located in Anting Town, Jiading District. It can be settled at the end of this month and can accommodate 2,000 people as a whole.
It is understood that the Shanghai R&D Center will focus on high-voltage platforms and ultra-fast charging technology, autonomous driving technology and next-generation smart cockpit technology.
But in last year's financial report performance, the ideal R&D investment has been declining.
In 2020, the ideal annual R&D expenses will be 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, accounting for 11.6% of total revenue.
Horizontal comparison shows that such investment and proportion are not high: NIO’s full-year R&D expenditure in 2020 is 2.488 billion yuan, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue; Xiaopeng’s annual R&D expenditure is 1.726 billion yuan, accounting for The proportion of total income is 29.5%.
Ideally, the reason for the decrease in R&D investment in 2020 is that higher verification and test costs were paid in 2019 to prepare for the production of the ideal ONE. In 2020, there are no new cars, so this investment is reduced.
Ideal dilemma
Although in the future Ideal intends to walk on two legs with pure electricity and extended range, at least for the past two years, Ideal still aims at the "no one" extended-range track.
However, it is a question of how long the ideal ONE of "one enemy ten" program can win, because the growth rate of delivery volume is showing the ideal successor weakness.
Single product line, weak delivery
At present, Ideal has only one extended-range model of Ideal ONE. Compared with the three models sold by Weilai and the two models sold by Xiaopeng, is "one against ten" the advantage of Ideal ONE or is it helpless?
According to the financial reports of the top three new forces, the annual delivery volume of Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng in 2020 is about 43,700, 32,600 and 27, 000 respectively. However, the data of Weilai and Xiaopeng are composed of 3 and 2 models. The models are supported, so on average, the Ideal ONE is undoubtedly the best-selling one among all the models of the three new power companies.
"The value that products and product power bring to users is the most important. I can say very responsibly that 300,000 yuan wants to buy a car with good quality, 6 seats and a large space, with an intelligent system, the ideal ONE is you The only option at the moment." The above-mentioned ideal car person said to the Red Star Capital Bureau, "It used to be said that'giving more children is good for fighting.' If the company wants to expand into more and more segmented markets and increase sales, the future models will be There must be something."
According to the above sources, Ideal will release a full-size extended-range SUV in 2022.
In other words, even though the ideal intends to walk on two legs with pure electric power and extended range in the future, at least for the past two years, ideal is still aimed at the "no one" extended-range circuit.
However, it is a question of how long the ideal ONE of "one enemy ten" program can win, because the growth rate of delivery volume is showing the ideal successor weakness.
In the first quarter of 2021, Ideal delivered 12,600 vehicles, Weilai delivered 20,000 vehicles, and Xiaopeng delivered 13,300 vehicles.
In terms of delivery volume, Xiaopeng does not surpass the ideal much, but in terms of growth rate, the gap is even more obvious.
In the first quarter, Weilai increased by 422.7% year-on-year and 15.6% month-on-month; Xiaopeng increased by 487% year-on-year, and only slightly increased by 3% year-on-year; the ideal delivery volume increased by 334.4% year-on-year, which is already behind, and the only decline among the three swordsmen , Is -13%.
In other words, in the race of "Wei Xiaoli", ideals start to lose strength.
But ideally, this is a normal situation. "The low delivery volume is that we have our own adjustments and strategies. This is only a performance at the data level and does not mean that the company's operating results must be bad."
In addition to product layout, vehicle deliveries are directly linked to production capacity.
There are rumors that Ideal will build a factory in Beijing to expand production capacity.
According to the Tianyancha APP, Beijing Ideal Automobile Co., Ltd. was established on April 9 with the legal representative Shen Yanan. The company's business scope includes the manufacturing of new energy smart vehicles and the manufacturing of new energy smart vehicle powertrain systems.
However, the ideals denied to the Red Star Capital Bureau the relationship between the new Beijing company and the Beijing plant, saying that "there is no Beijing plant" and that the current Changzhou plant's production capacity is 100,000 units per year.
According to this figure, it is basically the same as Weilai and Xiaopeng.
Earliest profit, but lowest market value
With Xiaopeng Motors' gross profit margin turning positive for the first time in 2020, the three leading companies of the new car-making forces are all developing positively.
Ideal is the first company to achieve a positive gross profit margin, and it is also the first company to achieve profitability.
The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2020, Ideal Auto's total revenue was 4.15 billion yuan, an increase of 65.2% year-on-year; the net profit was 107.5 million yuan, and the quarterly net profit was positive for the first time.
However, according to Ideal Auto CFO Li Tie disclosed at the financial report meeting, the positive net profit in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the income generated by the investment of short-term financial products.
For the whole year of 2020, Ideal Auto's revenue is 9.461 billion yuan, an increase of 3231.33% year-on-year; Weilai Automobile's revenue is 16.258 billion yuan, an increase of 107.77% year-on-year; Xiaopeng Automobile's revenue is 5.844 billion yuan, an increase of 151.79% year-on-year.
In terms of gross profit margin, the ideal 16.4% is the highest, Weilai gross profit margin is 11.52%, and Xiaopeng is 4.6%.
The 30-fold revenue growth, the highest gross profit margin, and such dazzling financial results, the ideal is not recognized by the capital market.
As of last Friday's close, Eastern Time, the ideal market value was the lowest, with a total market value of 18.636 billion, while Weilai had a market value of 67.310 billion U.S. dollars and Xiaopeng had a market value of 26.722 billion U.S. dollars.
The cumulative rise and fall of stocks can also explain some problems.
In 2020, the new energy stock market soared, Weilai became the first 10-fold stock in the automotive industry, with an ideal increase of more than 2.5 times, and Xiaopeng’s increase of nearly 3 times.
However, after entering 2021, the market value of the three companies has begun to shrink. Hillhouse Capital, which used to be very optimistic about new energy, also liquidated Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal US stocks at the end of last year, believing that their market value was too high.
As of the close of the market last Friday, Eastern Time, the ideal quotation was US$20.6/share, which closed down 28.5% this year; Weilai’s price was US$41.08/share, which closed down 13.5%; Xiaopeng’s quoted price was US$33.30/share, which closed down 22.2%. .
In February of this year, on the eve of Ideal’s earnings report, Li Xiang stated in an internal letter that Ideal would capture 20% of the market share by 2025 and become China’s number one smart electric vehicle company; in 2030, it would go further and become the number one in the world. The smart electric vehicle company.
Li Xiang predicts that by 2025, the Chinese market will sell more than 8 million smart electric vehicles, so a 20% market share means that at least 1.6 million vehicles will be sold.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market will be 1.367 million.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Yu Yao, intern reporter Xie Yutong