Chinanews.com, April 23. In response to my country’s foreign exchange situation and future trends this year, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office today, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that since the beginning of this year, the international environment has indeed taken place. Relatively large changes, the rise in U.S. bond yields and the rebound in the US dollar exchange rate index have affected international capital flows to a certain extent.

In such an external environment, China's foreign exchange market has shown consistent characteristics of resilience, rationality and balance.

　　First, the RMB exchange rate is generally stable, showing narrow two-way fluctuations.

On the first day of the market opening at the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate jumped 1.2% to 6.46.

After that, it entered a relatively stable situation, with narrow fluctuations between 6.46-6.55.

Compared with major international currencies, it is relatively stable and shows strong resilience.

As of yesterday, the renminbi’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has risen slightly by 0.8% from the end of last year, the euro has depreciated by 1.4% against the U.S. dollar, and the yen has depreciated by 4.4% against the U.S. dollar. This is a bilateral exchange rate.

Looking at the multilateral exchange rate, the US dollar index rose 1.3%, the emerging market currency index fell 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate index rose 2%.

Judging from these few data, the RMB exchange rate is generally stable, showing narrow two-way fluctuations and showing relatively good resilience.

　　Second, transactions in the foreign exchange market are rational and orderly, and exchange rate expectations are relatively stable.

First of all, market entities still maintain a rational trading model of foreign exchange settlement at high prices and foreign exchange purchases at low prices.

During the period of RMB appreciation from January to February of this year, the willingness to purchase foreign exchange was stronger, and the purchase exchange rate increased by 1.6 percentage points compared with December last year.

During the period of RMB depreciation in March, demand for foreign exchange settlement emerged, and the settlement exchange rate rose 3.1 percentage points from January to February.

From the perspective of corporate foreign exchange transactions, it is mainly to meet actual needs.

In the first quarter, enterprises’ export and trade foreign exchange settlement increased by 39% and 38% year-on-year, respectively. Import and trade foreign exchange purchases increased by 19% and 23%, respectively. These two directions are the same and the magnitudes are similar. .

Rational trading comes from rational and stable expectations. We calculated that the foreign exchange forward and option indicators reflect that the RMB exchange rate expectations are also basically stable.

　　Third, the balance of payments is basically balanced, and cross-border two-way investment is generally balanced.

In the first quarter of this year, the trade in goods maintained a relatively high surplus, and the deficit in the service trade continued to be at a low level. Therefore, the current account is still expected to continue a small surplus in the first quarter of this year, which will be within the range of basic balance.

At the same time, cross-border two-way investment is relatively stable and balanced.

First, under direct investment, long-term operational cross-border investment remains active.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the actual use of foreign capital by non-financial companies from January to March increased by 34% from the average level of the same period in 2019 and 2020. The foreign direct investment of non-financial companies from January to February was comparable to the level of the same period in 2019 and 2020.

Secondly, there is a small net inflow under securities investment.

According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic bonds and stocks by US$73.7 billion from January to March. Domestic entities participated in the Hong Kong stock market through Southbound Stock Connect, and net purchases of Hong Kong stocks reached RMB 311.1 billion.

Judging from these data, the balance of payments is basically balanced, and cross-border two-way investment is generally balanced.

　　Wang Chunying said that in the medium and long term, the foundation for China's foreign exchange market to maintain a stable operation in the future is still solid.

From several aspects: First, the new development pattern will help maintain the balance of international payments. my country actively promotes domestic and external demand, exports and imports, and the coordinated development of foreign investment and foreign investment. Current accounts and cross-border investment and financing are expected to operate. In a reasonable and balanced range.

Second, the new development concept helps maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

Stable economic development will boost market confidence and create a stable currency.

The third is the steady promotion of opening up to the outside world, which will help balance the flow of cross-border capital.

Now that my country's economy has been deeply integrated into globalization, a high-level opening up will promote the free flow of capital, talent, technology, data, and services, and create a favorable policy environment for the two-way balanced flow of cross-border capital.

Fourth, the flexible RMB exchange rate has played the role of an automatic “stabilizer” in adjusting the international balance of payments, which helps the foreign exchange market to adjust and balance independently.

　　"Of course, we have not only seen the positive side, but also paid attention to some risks. For example, the spread of the global epidemic, geopolitics and other factors will have a certain impact on my country's foreign economy and balance of payments. We will continue to pay close attention and conduct in-depth research. Accurate response will effectively guarantee the stability of my country's international payments and the balance of cross-border capital flows." Wang Chunying said.