(Focus on Boao) Boao Conference of 100: Can the global economic rebound last?

Zhu Min thinks "difficulty"

  China News Agency, Boao, April 20 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Zhu Min, Dean of the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University and former Vice President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in an interview with the media during the 2021 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia, this year Whether the global economy can continue to recover is faced with many challenges. The world will experience a dual-track and unbalanced development, and this trend will continue.

  Can the global economic rebound last?

Zhu Min believes that it is difficult.

  First, there are uncertainties in the recovery of the US economy.

After the outbreak, the United States adopted a large-scale stimulus plan to drive demand back up.

But Zhu Min pointed out that the basic law of fiscal stimulus is that as long as the first sum of money is spent, it must continue to be spent.

Because as long as the stimulus is stopped, aggregate demand will immediately fall.

This is why US President Biden has just signed a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and proposed a $2.25 trillion infrastructure construction package.

However, whether a series of stimulus plans can be passed by Congress or implemented is still uncertain.

  In addition, whether growth can be sustained depends not only on the United States, but also on the whole world.

  The year-on-year growth rate of China's economy in the first quarter reached a record 18.3%.

Zhu Min said that he is full of confidence in the future of China's economy because "it is balanced."

But other emerging economies still face challenges, mainly because the space for fiscal stimulus is very limited.

He pointed out that in 2020, the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP in developed countries will be significantly higher than that of emerging economies, and emerging economies will be higher than low-income countries.

The more low-income countries, the less fiscal funds can be used.

  If the US economy can continue to grow, emerging economies can also grow, but the gap with the US will widen.

Before the outbreak, many low-income countries had relatively rapid growth, but now their growth rate has been slowed down.

Therefore, Zhu Min believes that there will be a "dual track and unbalanced" development in the world, "this situation has already taken shape, and it will continue in the future."