my country's foreign trade in the first quarter increased by 29.2% year-on-year

Exports to the EU, the United States, and Japan increased by 48.5% in total, contributing 44.2% to the overall export growth

　　On April 13, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first quarter.

In the first quarter, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 4.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.7%; imports were 3.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.3%; the trade surplus was 759.29 billion yuan, an increase of 690.6%.

　　Li Kuiwen, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs, said that my country's foreign trade import and export achieved a "good start" in the first quarter.

Although there are factors such as a low base caused by the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic last year, compared with the same period in 2019 before the outbreak, the import and export growth rate in the first quarter of this year still reached 20.5%. my country's foreign trade continued to maintain a continuous increase since the second half of last year. Good momentum.

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　　Two-way recovery of domestic and international manufacturing

　　Analyzing the reasons for the overall improvement in foreign trade in the first quarter of this year, Li Kuiwen said that with the gradual expansion of the coverage of new crown pneumonia vaccination, the global economic recovery is showing a good momentum, and the recovery growth of global economic trade is conducive to the growth of my country's foreign trade.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the global manufacturing industry has continued to improve. In March, the manufacturing PMI of the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan rose to 64.7, 62.5, and 52.7 respectively, setting new highs since December 1983, June 1997, and November 2018, respectively.

　　This has driven the rapid growth of my country’s exports. According to customs data, my country’s exports to the European Union, the United States, and Japan increased by 48.5% in the first quarter, contributing 44.2% to the overall export growth.

　　At the same time, the domestic economy continued to recover steadily, and the manufacturing industry rebounded further, driving the import of integrated circuits, energy resources and other products.

In the first quarter, my country imported 155.27 billion integrated circuits, an increase of 33.6%; crude oil was 139 million tons, an increase of 9.5%; and copper was 1.436 million tons, an increase of 11.7%.

　　Under the initiative of "Chinese New Year in situ", during the Spring Festival this year, many enterprises in major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang "non-stop" production has boosted domestic industrial production to a certain extent and shortened the delivery cycle of foreign trade orders.

In March, my country's import and export increased by 25% month-on-month, of which exports and imports increased by 16.8% and 35.2% respectively.

　　In addition, under the influence of monetary easing policies in major economies such as the United States, global commodity prices have continued to rise rapidly, which has also boosted import growth.

　　As of March, the import price of iron ore has risen year-on-year for 7 consecutive months, the import price of copper ore has risen year-on-year for 11 consecutive months, and the import price of soybeans has risen year-on-year for 4 consecutive months.

Correspondingly, the import prices of the above products in the first quarter increased by 53.5%, 28% and 11.1% year-on-year respectively.

Crude oil import prices also ended their 12-month consecutive year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in March.

　　Recently, my country took the lead in ratifying the RCEP agreement to take effect, and member states have also expressed that they will promote the agreement to take effect on January 1, 2022.

my country's trade with other member states has "heated up."

Li Kuiwen introduced that in the first quarter of this year, my country's total imports and exports to the remaining 14 RCEP member states was 2.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, accounting for 31.5% of my country's total foreign trade import and export value.

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　　Export growth in March slowed down from February

　　Some people have noticed that if you look at the single-month data, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in March has shrunk significantly compared with February.

The reporter estimated that in March, the total value of my country's import and export of goods was about 3.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%.

Among them, exports were about 1.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%; imports were about 1.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%.

　　This is a big gap with the growth rate in February.

In March, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports slowed down from February (57%).

Among them, exports caused a significant drag, which dropped sharply from a year-on-year growth of 139.5% in February to a year-on-year growth of 26%; imports were stable, from a year-on-year growth of 10.3% in February to a year-on-year growth of 28% in March.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, explained that exports have slowed down, imports have been stable, and the year-on-year data has fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the base effect in the same period last year.

In February 2020, the epidemic broke out in the country, exports plummeted to 0.56 trillion yuan, and imports shrank slightly, causing a trade deficit of 0.43 trillion yuan.

Under the influence of the low base in February last year, in February this year, exports increased by 139.5 percent year-on-year.

　　As the epidemic has gradually been effectively controlled, since March last year, the domestic economy has continued to recover, while the epidemic has broken out overseas, production in the world's major economies has shut down, and demand has soared, bringing opportunities to China, where the epidemic is well controlled.

In March last year, import and export data rebounded significantly.

Under the influence of such a base figure, in March this year, imports and exports were stable, and the growth rate of exports naturally slowed down significantly compared with February.

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　　Foreign trade has grown positive year-on-year for three consecutive quarters

　　Recently, major international economic organizations have raised their growth expectations for economic and trade indicators.

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 from 5.5% in January to 6%; the World Trade Organization also raised its forecast for global trade in goods to 8% from the previous 7.2%.

　　Li Kuiwen believes that this fully shows a positive signal of the recovery of global economic and trade activities and the increase of market confidence.

　　Specifically for my country, Li Kuiwen said that my country's foreign trade has maintained a positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters. This trend is expected to be maintained for a period of time in the future, but the specific trend needs further observation.

　　This involves many domestic and international factors.

At this stage, the global epidemic is still recurring, and the "blocking" of the Suez Canal has a short-term impact on the timeliness of international trade and logistics.

In addition, my country’s imports and exports in the second quarter of last year increased by 16.8% compared with the first quarter of last year. The base figure rose significantly last year, which objectively brought challenges to the growth of foreign trade in the second quarter of this year.

　　Li Kuiwen said that on the whole, there will be many favorable factors in the operation of my country's foreign trade in the future, but there will also be many external challenges, and the steady growth of foreign trade still has a long way to go.

　　Lian Ping put forward a key point that needs attention: With the continuous increase in vaccination efforts, the global epidemic is under control, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials and "home economy" commodities may decline.

At the same time, the production and supply capacity of emerging countries continues to recover, and the export transfer situation may intensify in the future.

　　Speaking of the foreign trade situation in the second quarter, Lian Ping believes that the expansion of domestic and foreign demand will continue to be the main driving factor for imports and exports.

As the logic of export demand shift and supply substitution is further established, the cost of export enterprises will increase due to the lagging effect of the increase in commodity prices and the appreciation of the renminbi, and China's exports will be under pressure.

　　However, the recent appreciation of the US dollar is conducive to exports, and export growth will return to normal, but there is still the possibility of certain fluctuations in the short term.

The global economic recovery will continue to keep commodity prices at a high level, and promote imports to continue to maintain rapid growth.

　　Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi