Why SF's stock price fell again and again

  Our reporter Zhou Lin, Ma Chunyang, Guo Ziyuan

  On April 12, the A-share listed company SF Holdings Co., Ltd. opened lower and went lower. As of the close, it had fallen by 9.38%.

During the five trading days from April 6 to April 12, SF Holdings fell by more than 20%.

From mid-February to the present in less than two months, SF Express has fallen by about 50% and its market value has evaporated by more than 200 billion yuan.

  The stock market’s feedback is related to the first quarter 2021 performance forecast announced by SF Express on the evening of April 8.

The announcement shows that SF Holdings is expected to lose 900 million to 1.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, it is expected to lose 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan. In the same period in 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent and the non-net profit will be 9.07 respectively. 100 million yuan and 832 million yuan.

  SF Holdings stated in the announcement that the losses were mainly due to several reasons: first, the diversified layout of the logistics track led to increased costs; second, the increase in user demand after the epidemic caused cost pressure in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of this year; third, the company The resource investment of the integrated business line has overlapped resources; fourth is not closing during the Spring Festival, and subsidies for employees in first and second tier cities have reached a record high, leading to rising operating costs; fifth is expanding the sinking market, and the gross profit of e-commerce parts is under pressure.

  Does SF Express’s explanation match the perception of the outside world?

In 2020, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the price war in the domestic express industry has intensified, resulting in a significant drop in the profit of express delivery units, and even some companies have experienced periodic losses.

Statistics from GF Securities show that in February 2021, the price of single-ticket express (each single express) has declined year-on-year for 12 consecutive months. The average single-ticket price from January to February was 10.69 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.08%, reflecting the entire express industry. The intensity of price competition.

  As the competition among e-commerce giants has entered the "three pillars" stage of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, the current domestic express companies are divided into several camps based on shareholding and shareholder relations: Alibaba (YTO, Shentong, Best), JD (JD Logistics) ), third parties with high independence (SF, Zhongtong, Yunda).

Due to the e-commerce mess, it is relatively easier for independent third-party express delivery to obtain the bargaining power of the downstream and obtain relatively better operating benefits.

But in the long run, if the total demand of e-commerce stabilizes, express companies that rely on e-commerce support may get more stable traffic support, while the performance of relatively independent express companies such as SF Express can only rely on their own.

  Hu Shimin, chief transportation analyst of CITIC Securities Research Department, believes that the greater pressure on SF Express's performance is related to factors such as increased resource input, increased cost pressure, and increased Spring Festival subsidies.

Although SF Express is at the peak of resource investment this year and next, the investment is to further consolidate the "moat" of SF Express. In the future, SF Express is expected to enter a period of rapid growth in performance.

  Zhao Xiaomin, deputy director of the Post and Express Special Committee of the Shanghai Transportation Commission, believes that from 2020 to the present, the express industry is facing two challenges: First, the increase in “contactless” delivery affected by the epidemic has intensified the price war of express delivery, and changes in the external environment have affected the express industry. New challenges in their own operations, coupled with the increase in the promotion scale of many e-commerce platforms, have intensified the price war of express delivery companies; second, some express companies that have been listed for four or five years have not yet undergone internal transformation or transformation is weak, and network structure and other operations management are facing Big problem.

SF Express has promoted the transformation since its listing, and the initial transformation has come to an end.

For many express companies, it is a defensive or shrinking situation.

SF Express has a comparative advantage in domestic competition in the same industry, and it is expected that it will take the initiative to take advantage of this "window period".

  Regarding the "single" express delivery price war model in the express delivery industry, Zhao Xiaomin predicts that it may come to an end around June this year, because purely relying on price wars may lead to double-killing of stocks and debts of listed companies, difficulty in increasing market share, and increased volatility in express delivery networks.

The healthy development of the express delivery industry depends on improving corporate governance, improving equipment, and increasing profit margins.

From this point of view, SF Express's initiative to transform and upgrade and sink channels is also following the trend.

  Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that the fall in SF's share price in the secondary market is mainly related to the recent performance forecast, but the decline in SF's stock price is unlikely to last for too long, and the market still has a certainty on SF. Confidence, because SF Express still has a unique competitiveness in the express delivery industry.

In the future, SF Express's efforts in many segments may bear fruit.

Better logistics services are where SF Express’s value lies, but better services mean higher costs. How to improve service quality while reducing costs is a challenge for SF Express in the future.

  Zhou Lin Ma Chunyang Guo Ziyuan