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Experts had warned in advance of too much euphoria and they should be right: The new US President Joe Biden may ensure that the tone between the US and the allies in Europe becomes more conciliatory.
So far, however, his government has changed little in terms of trade policy.
The punitive tariffs imposed by Donald Trump remain in effect, including tariffs on steel and aluminum products.
The US de facto banned the export of vaccines and other medical goods in the corona pandemic.
And with the “Buy American Act”, Biden decreed that public contracts should only go to American companies.
In Brussels and Berlin, this policy has dampened hopes that the change in power in Washington would usher in a new era of relaxation in transatlantic trade.
And the German foreign trade promotion Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is now warning in an unpublished theses paper for the Federal Ministry of Economics, which WELT has received, of globalization 2.0, which will become far more uncomfortable for German exporters, who are used to success, than the status quo.
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At least there have been signs of relaxation recently: Both sides have agreed to suspend the tariffs in the Boeing-Airbus dispute, which is being fought before the World Trade Organization.
It was only at the weekend that Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice President of the EU Commission responsible for trade, offered in “Spiegel” to extend this standstill period again so that both sides can find a solution during this time.
The relationship between the EU and the USA is, however, symptomatic of global development.
The corona pandemic fueled economic nationalism and intensified this problematic development, which had already started before the outbreak of the pandemic.
There is little to suggest that with a return to normal in the coming months, protectionism, the search for national champions, and increased state influence on the economy will decline.
In fact, states around the world have responded to the pandemic by expanding their influence on the economy and society - a development that has been approved, if not often called for, by the majority of the population.
This also affected large parts of economic life: export controls, export bans or huge support programs for companies and employees;
In many cases, the pandemic has created more state in the economy.
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If this development continues around the globe, however, it will become a problem for the export-heavy German economy, predicts the German foreign trade promotion Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI).
"Geopolitical tensions are increasing, access to markets is becoming more difficult, the value system of the world trade regime is under pressure," they write in a thesis paper for Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier.
It is to be discussed at the foreign trade days of his ministry in the coming week.
In it, the analysts outline an uncomfortable trading world that challenges German companies.
The finding is particularly explosive because the promotion of foreign trade takes the pulse of globalization almost every day: It supports German companies in trading with foreign customers, helps with investments and solicits foreign investors in Germans.
In particular, the competition with China will be a balancing act for European and German industries, warn the trade experts.
“The global competition of systems will continue to shape the world economy,” they write.
It is not just about answers to unfair trade practices, unilateral advances and government subsidies for companies.
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The EU Commission, for example, is keeping an eye on such practices.
European companies have long been complaining of unfair competition with highly flirted Chinese companies, both on the world market and in China and Europe.
In the corona pandemic, the topic had become even more explosive, as there were concerns that companies backed by China could use the crisis to buy up ailing or undervalued companies in Europe.
In fact, however, the development continues, warn the GTAI analysts: A fundamental repositioning of the roles between the state and the economy is in the making.
“The role of the state in the free market economy is under scrutiny.
Companies are insecure, ”says the paper.
It is a countermovement to thirty years of globalization and liberalization of trade between nations.
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The experts are urging the EU to help shape this new global order more decisively. More bilateral trade agreements are needed because the WTO's multilateral approach has failed. "If the EU is not involved in such regional agreements, it threatens to be cut off in these markets," the authors write. Against this background, the fact that ratification of the Mercosur Agreement, which is linked with high hopes, is currently stalling in Europe is not a good omen.