According to forecasts from the Banque de France, the country's economy will suffer much less from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 than the previous year.

An increased resistance which can be explained in particular by the learning of distancing measures and the installation of equipment for teleworking by companies.

The French economy is suffering much less from the Covid-19 crisis than a year ago despite new health restrictions, with a loss of activity between four and five times less, estimated the Bank of France on Monday.

Consequently, the central bank does not plan for the moment to revise its 2021 growth forecast, for the moment of 5.5%.

The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to before the health crisis was 4% in March and will be limited to around 7% in April, according to the central bank's monthly economic report.

The loss of activity reached its maximum in April 2020, with 31%, after 18% in March, compared to the reference months of January and February 2020. "This testifies to an increased resilience of the economy to constraints health ", according to the note which is based on the results of a survey of 8,500 business leaders, which however does not include the retail trade.

Learning to live with the epidemic 

This increased resistance is explained by the learning of distancing measures and the installation of equipment for teleworking by companies but also by a world economy which is no longer at a standstill with "an international trade which is in strong recovery "just like Asia and the United States, explained during a presentation to the press the managing director of the Bank of France, Olivier Garnier.

Faced with these "good surprises", "we do not anticipate a significant revision of our growth projection that we published in March for the year 2021", declared Olivier Garnier, recalling that this growth forecast was " of the order of 5.5% ".

For the first quarter, the GDP should be "in slight growth compared to the previous quarter", specifies the note, indicating that it would be less than 1%.

>> LIVE

- Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Monday April 12

The central bank clarified that its survey was carried out from March 29 to April 6, but that 80% of the responses had been collected after the presidential announcement of the extension of health restriction measures to the entire metropolitan territory on the 31st. March.

For the month of March, the loss of activity is improved by a percentage point compared to what the Banque de France forecast a month ago, because "we observe a stronger improvement than what was expected by companies ", according to Olivier Garnier.

In April, the expected loss of activity "is of the same order of magnitude as in November and this despite the fact that nurseries and schools are closed while they were not in November", also relieved the general manager.

Industry in the green

Most industrial sectors returned to a level of activity close to normal in March, except in "aeronautics and other transport" which is only three quarters of its normal level and to a lesser extent in the automobile, where it peaks at four-fifths of its usual level.

Other indicators also show the strength of the recovery in the industry.

Thus, the production capacity utilization rate rose above its 20-year average in March, as did the situation of order books in the industrial sector.

And the cash position of industrial companies is the best since the financial crisis of 2008, in the eyes of their leaders.

CORONAVIRUS ESSENTIALS

> Covid-19: is there really a risk of contamination outside?

> Coronavirus: why can a PCR test be positive one month after infection?

> Are private parties really prohibited with the curfew?

> The English variant would cause slightly different symptoms

> Audio, webcams ... When technology adapts to teleworking

Contrary to this trend, the drop in industrial production recorded in February by INSEE is an indicator considered more "volatile" by the central bank than the opinion of business leaders, in particular because of uncertainties. short term automotive inventory and supply issues.

In market services, the situation is disparate between sectors and remains very deteriorated in March in catering and accommodation, with prospects also deteriorating in April for car rental and repair, in connection with the third confinement.