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At the beginning of 2020, an unusual party alliance emerged for the first time: Not only the FDP, but also the Left Party demanded tax cuts.
"The tax burden is too high for people with low and middle incomes, they earn more," said Left parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch.
He thought about the figures from the federal government, according to which 3.5 million Germans pay the top tax rate of 42 percent on part of their income.
Not everyone is likely to feel that they are top earners: 1.7 million of them come to between EUR 5,000 and EUR 7,000 gross per month.
A good year later there is a call for relief for people with low and middle incomes from all parties.
In the already submitted draft programs of the Left Party, Greens and SPD you can read about it, even in the drafts of the CDU and FDP that are still in progress, the promise will not be missing, according to the parties.
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These are actually ideal prerequisites for a comprehensive reform of the income tax tariff after the Bundestag election - regardless of the government constellation - and thus for a financial relief for large parts of the population.
However, the decision will only be made in the autumn in the negotiations between the future coalition members.
And in view of the tight state coffers and many additional spending requests, doubts are already growing that the unanimous promise will be kept.
In any case, a reform could be justified.
This is shown by a current inventory by the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, which is exclusively available to WELT AM SONNTAG.
The client was the FDP-affiliated Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
Tax rate at its highest level since 1990
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Accordingly, the burden on private households through taxes and social contributions reached the highest level since 2000 in 2019. On average, the overall economic tax rate was 41.3 percent.
At the same time, the tax rate reached 24 percent, the highest level since reunification.
The new numbers fit in with international studies.
According to an evaluation by the industrialized countries organization OECD, Germany overtook Belgium in taxes and duties in 2019 to take the top spot among 36 member countries.
The RWI approach goes beyond that of the OECD.
When distributing the duty and tax burden on individual household types, the researchers included, for example, consumption taxes such as value-added tax in their calculations, i.e. those taxes that are paid at the checkout when shopping and then paid by the dealer to the tax authorities.
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The researchers also factored in other indirect burdens for employees: namely employer contributions to social security and corporate taxes.
"These are also payments to the state that reduce the household's free income," says RWI economist and one of the study authors, Robin Jessen.
The money could just as easily flow into household accounts as higher wages and dividends.
It shows: Even a single with an annual income of 28,000 euros has a tax burden - including employer taxes and contributions - of 50 percent, it increases with an income of 80,000 euros to 54 percent and then falls again.
The middle pays the most.
This is due to the fact that the maximum social security contributions are capped; for pension insurance, for example, the limit is currently at an annual income of 85,200 euros.
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Even low incomes are heavily burdened
Of all household types examined, couples with children have to shoulder the lowest tax burden on average.
No matter how high the income is, they hardly exceed a total burden of 45 percent.
This is mainly due to the deductible child allowances, which lead to a lower tax liability.
It is noticeable that even very low incomes have a high tax rate.
"I would never have expected that working people with an annual gross income of 17,000 euros could achieve a tax rate of 40 percent," says study author Jessen.
This is because, on average, low-wage earners consume a higher proportion of their income and thus pay relatively high consumption taxes.
Whereby the tax rate alone for low incomes says little about the total burden on a household.
Finally, there are transfer payments from the state.
In the case of low incomes, transfers are heavily influenced by transfers from the job center.
According to RWI, the transfer payments exceed the taxes for the bottom 36 percent of income earners.
Here, households are on average among the net recipients of state cash benefits.
The top ten percent, on the other hand, hardly benefit from transfer payments.
Here the tax quota shows almost one to one.
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That is the number basis for the tax discussion in the upcoming election campaign and in the subsequent coalition negotiations.
"Contrary to what many citizens assume, households with a relatively low income are also heavily burdened," says Karl-Heinz Paqué, chairman of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, equipped with an FDP party book.
Instead of curbing the economy with new tax increases, politicians should concentrate on relieving lower-income households.
It sounds like a position that could not only be shared by liberal spirits who insist on more personal responsibility.
Especially since the pressure to act continues to increase.
The RWI is assuming a constant overall social tax quota for 2020 and, thanks to the partial abolition of the solidarity contribution, even a decrease of "around one percentage point" in 2021.
No enthusiasm for reform
But without reforms, the breather is likely to be short-lived.
After all, the consequences of the pandemic are likely to lead to rising health insurance contributions and higher pension costs.
The aging of society continues regardless of the government.
If you look around at parties that are hoping to lead the next government, you don't feel any enthusiasm for a comprehensive income tax reform - not even in the CDU.
Because at least the financial politicians know that it is hardly possible to relieve small and medium incomes without foregoing tax revenues in the billions.
The idea of getting the money that the state foregoes on lower incomes from those on high incomes may sound charming.
But an increase in the top tax rate from 42 percent to 45 percent and the tax rate for the rich from 45 percent to 48 percent, as the SPD and the Greens propose, will hardly be enough.
According to estimates by the German Economic Institute (IW), which is close to the employer, the higher rates bring in only five billion euros in additional taxes.
The relief, on the other hand, could add up to 30 billion euros, depending on the exact tariff model.
It is controversial whether the wealth tax propagated by both parties can bring the hoped-for compensation.
In the end, the income tax framework could stay as it is one more time.
People who do not consider themselves to be top earners would continue to pay the top tax rate on part of their income.
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