(Economic Observation) Chief economists are optimistic that China's economic growth is full of stamina

　　China News Service, Beijing, April 10 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The core economic indicators such as China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter that have received much attention will be announced soon.

At the "2021 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum" held on the 10th, the chief economists who attended the meeting believed that as the macro policy is more long-term in mind, China's economic growth will also have full stamina.

　　As the only major economy in the world that achieved positive growth last year, China's economy continued to recover steadily in the first two months of this year.

The market generally believes that China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year is expected to reach double digits year-on-year.

　　Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, predicts that China's economy is expected to achieve 9% growth this year, driven by domestic consumption and exports, and manufacturing investment will also rebound significantly under the substantial increase in corporate income and orders.

However, with the gradual policyization of monetary and fiscal policies, it is necessary to pay attention to credit market fluctuations in the process.

The inflation pressure is expected to be controllable, the exchange rate is stable, and the leverage ratio is expected to decrease.

　　It is worth noting that many economic indicators in China have risen to high levels, partly due to the low base in the same period last year.

With the gradual weakening of the base effect, will China's economy see a significant decline in the future?

　　In this regard, Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, said that China's process of making up the global supply and demand gap has not yet ended, which means that China's external demand will remain high in the future.

At the same time, the gap in China's domestic consumption and service industry has not yet been fully compensated, and the process of consumption returning to equilibrium has not yet ended.

　　He believes that due to the weakening of the base effect in the next few months, China's economic data may decline, but this does not mean that economic momentum will decline.

"Excluding the base effect, China's economy was relatively solid in the first half of the year, regardless of whether it was domestic or external demand."

　　In the long run, Cui Li, chief economist of CCB International, mentioned that the epidemic has accelerated China's economic transformation, and the future economic growth will be driven by consumption, high-tech and manufacturing upgrades.

The acceleration of upgrading means the improvement of economic efficiency. In the context of strengthening endogenous economic growth, the expansion of the financial cycle will no longer be the main driving force affecting corporate profitability.

Due to changes in its own driving force, the economic cycle will be more sustainable, and not only growth companies, but traditional companies will also benefit from it.

　　From a policy perspective, China is also looking to the farther future.

In the official "14th Five-Year Plan" outline, a series of measures such as tackling population aging, actively responding to climate change, and accelerating digital development are all aimed at building a higher-quality and more sustainable development track.

　　"Our current policy direction is right. Don't pay too much attention to how much money will be issued this month and how much GDP will be next month." said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Baoyin Investment. How high, but the pursuit of medium and long-term sustainability.

In contrast, the United States is increasingly focusing on short-term economic growth.

From the perspective of global investors, they are more willing to invest their money in a more sustainable market with medium and long-term fiscal and financial stability.

　　A more long-term and more autonomous policy orientation has also strengthened the resilience of China's economy and finance to external shocks.

In recent times, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has soared, renewing concerns about the “shrinking panic” in emerging markets.

The most typical performance is the "three kills" of equity and debt exchange after Turkey's interest rate hike.

　　Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China Securities, believes that “shrinking panic” in emerging markets may become an important tail risk in international financial markets in the post-epidemic era, but China is in a relatively favorable position.

　　He mentioned that after the RMB exchange rate broke through 7, the degree of marketization and flexibility increased, foreign exchange market participants were more rational about exchange rate fluctuations, and the role of exchange rate leverage was playing normally.

As exchange rate flexibility has increased and monetary policy independence has also increased, even if the Fed’s monetary policy tightens, it will not necessarily cause the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy to follow up.

Moreover, in the response to this epidemic, the central bank's monetary policy is also leading the world.

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