Chinanews client, Beijing, April 9th ​​(Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March.

Many agencies predict that, affected by rising tail-raising factors, the CPI in March may turn from negative to positive year-on-year, but food prices will drop significantly month-on-month or drag down the rebound.

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

March CPI year-on-year or slightly positive

　　Affected by the relatively high base in the same period in 2020, the price of "Second Brother" fell sharply year-on-year in February, driving the CPI in February to drop by 0.2% year-on-year.

How will the CPI change in March?

　　According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from March 22 to 28, the wholesale price of pork was 35.72 yuan per kilogram, compared with 38.59 yuan per kilo from February 22 to 28, a drop of 7.44%.

The average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables also fell sharply.

　　“The decline in food prices since the beginning of March is in line with the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations in previous years. The increase in the number of live pigs and the number of slaughters has promoted the decline in pork prices. However, due to the significant decline in food prices during the same period in previous years, the year-on-year change is not obvious.” Said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Research Center.

　　"The tail-lifting factor in March was -0.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from February." Liu Xuezhi said that the CPI will change from negative to positive year-on-year due to the increase in the tail-raising factor, and the expected increase will be between 0.4% and 0.6%, whichever is the middle. The value is 0.5%.

　　"The year-on-year increase of CPI in March will rebound to around 0.2%." Hua Changchun, chief economist of the Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, predicts that most food items will fall from the previous month after the Spring Festival, dragging down the rebound.

　　According to statistics from Flush iFinD, 22 institutions have an average forecast of 0.29% for the year-on-year increase in CPI in March.

If the above average forecast is fulfilled, the March CPI may turn positive again year-on-year.

Pork sold in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Xie Yiguan

What is the future trend of CPI year-on-year?

　　"On April 6th, the average price of three yuan outside the country was 23.24 yuan/kg, which was 8.14% lower than that on March 30." Zhuo Chuang Information monitors.

　　"As the price of live pigs has fallen all the way, the psychological defense line of the breeders is on the verge of collapse, and large pigs are concentrated on slaughter to impact the market, resulting in a staged surplus on the supply side." Zhuo Chuang Information believes that at the same time, Ching Ming Festival has limited positive boost to the consumer side, but slaughter Companies are fighting each other in pork price wars, low-price competition is fierce, and gross margins shrink, leading to operating losses.

The two-way supply and demand are negative, and the price of pigs is difficult to stop falling.

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　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork, vegetables and fruits in the national agricultural product wholesale market dropped from April 1st to 7th.

　　If the price of pork and other foods continues to fall, will the future CPI decline year-on-year?

　　"Although production has returned to normal and supply is sufficient, food prices are declining, but due to the impact of global commodity prices pushing up the prices of some consumer goods, the CPI in April may have expanded year-on-year or compared with March, which also drove the CPI in the second quarter. There was an increase in the first quarter." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

　　On March 15, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Liu Aihua, said at the press conference that in the future, from the perspective of food prices, the supply of grain and major agricultural products is sufficient, and prices are expected to maintain a relatively stable trend; from the perspective of industrial consumer goods and service prices, industrial Consumer goods do not have the basis for a sharp increase, and the service industry prices are expected to remain stable; from the perspective of the carryover factor and new price increase factors, the annual carryover factor is only -0.1%, which is relatively weak compared to previous years.

On the whole, the annual CPI is expected to remain within a reasonable and moderate range.

(Finish)