[Explanation] The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outline of long-term goals for 2035 have been officially released.
Chinese officials have set a long-term goal for 2035, which mentioned that the per capita GDP has reached the level of middle-developed countries and the middle-income group has expanded significantly. This means that China will inevitably face the test of the “middle-income trap”.
Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University and honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute, said in an interview in Beijing recently that it is not difficult for China to cross the "middle-income trap".
[Concurrent] Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University and Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute
According to current international standards, as long as a country’s per capita (GNI gross national income) exceeds US$12,535, it will enter a high-income country from a middle-income country, and of course it will get rid of the “middle-income trap”.
Our current (per capita GDP) is about 11,500 US dollars, and it should not be difficult to add more than 1,000 US dollars.
And I believe that around 2025, (China) will be able to cross the middle-income threshold and enter the high-income threshold.
[Explanation] Lin Yifu said that to overcome the "middle-income trap", income level must be increased. The increase of income level must rely on the improvement of labor productivity. The improvement of labor productivity requires continuous technological innovation and continuous industrial upgrading.
If China achieves a leap, it will be an important milestone in human economic history.
[Concurrent] Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University and Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute
Because now the world’s population living in high-income countries accounts for 16% and 17% of the world’s total population, and China’s population accounts for more than 18% of the world’s total population. So when China becomes a high-income country, the world is living in The population of high-income countries can be doubled.
I think the important part of this effort is the two institutional arrangements. One is to have an "effective market" and the other is to have a "promising government". Both the market and the government have to use both hands well at the same time.
I think that China's ability to cross the past will also bring confidence to other countries. If it crosses over, this is a very important milestone in the history of human economics.
[Explanation] Earlier, Lin Yifu stated in a public speech that China still has the potential for 8% annual GDP growth before 2030.
What factors will affect the full realization of China's growth potential?
Lin Yifu pointed out that potential is a technological possibility, which is viewed from the supply side. To make it a reality, we need to look at the demand side.
[Concurrent] Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University and Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute
Since the 2008 international financial crisis, developed countries have not recovered, because before 2008, the average annual growth rate of developed countries was between 3% and 3.5%.
However, since 2008, the average growth rate of developed countries is the United States, which is only about 2%, European countries are about 1%, and Japan basically averages below 1%.
The economies of these developed countries still account for nearly half of the world's economy. If calculated at the market exchange rate, if the market does not develop in that half, then imports will decrease, and the demand for us will decrease, so the demand side will be insufficient.
[Explanation] Lin Yifu also emphasized that China’s development is not only for the speed of development, but also for the environment, regional income gaps and other issues. Therefore, China’s development potential depends on the actual situation of the domestic and international markets, and in the actual development process It also depends on international and domestic conditions to make appropriate adjustments.
Reporter Liu Xuanting and Xia Bin report from Beijing
Editor in charge: [Liu Pai]