[Economic Observation] What is the speculation economy?
Recently, a limited edition sneaker of Li Ning was priced at 49,999 yuan by online sellers, a 33-fold increase compared to the reference price of 1,499 yuan.
"Sneakers on a wall are comparable to a suite", "Fry blind boxes to earn a down payment", "I make 600% when I buy it from another hand". All kinds of "myths" of wealth creation have made the "speculation economy" more and more crazy.
The rise of trend culture has made ordinary industrial products such as shoes, blind boxes, gashapons, and building block bears become popular objects for speculators.
Many young consumers believe in "everything can be speculated", and rushed into the market under the temptation of tens or even hundreds of times the increase, hoping to get rich overnight.
Correspondingly, there are more and more second-hand transactions of such commodities, and the trading platforms are more segmented, and some even provide authenticity identification and transaction indexes.
Why are there large-scale market hype, such as blind boxes and sneakers, which are not popular and mainstream hobby market products, and they have obtained such exaggerated premiums?
These "explosive" commodities have common characteristics: although they are not assets, they have quantifiable prices, and their individual products are easily available in price, making them popular among young consumers.
Unlike a relatively complete industrial chain that attracts speculators, these areas are often small in size and highly manipulable. Coupled with the promotion of circulation platforms, speculators can easily obtain excess profits by raising market prices.
In fact, traditional investment products have the characteristics of scarcity, long-term, and rigid demand.
Before the trendy products were widely hyped, they were mostly derived from niche hobbies and personal feelings, so the market share was not large.
In terms of commodity value, even if it is a limited edition of big-name sneakers, its main function is to wear rather than to collect. This "easily consumable" feature can hardly help it become an ideal and typical investment product.
But the weird thing is that even so, the shoe market is still booming, and there is even a price "K-line chart".
By studying the development law of the speculation market, it can be found that the reason why fashion shoes, blind boxes and other commodities can become hot topics on the Internet overnight is mostly driven by institutions.
They first release marketing topics and promote ordinary products to become "fashionable products"; then with the help of "storytelling", they gradually form a consumer trend; finally, they benefit from it by increasing the market value of their products.
It can be said that from the very beginning, the speculation economy was a capital game of "inviting the king into the urn", and it was an investment trap set by speculators, platforms, and capital targeting young consumers.
Unlike the traditional market consisting of real money and stock options, these consumer products lack real guarantees. To a large extent, their value is determined by consumers' psychological expectations.
This means that if such markets are kidnapped by speculative and hype mentality, a bubble will form.
Once it breaks due to some unexpected reasons, the consequences are likely to be catastrophic.
Insiders believe that the "speculation economy" not only raises commodity prices, but also brings risks and routines to ordinary consumers.
Relevant platforms and regulatory authorities should recognize the risks brought about by blind speculation and guide them so as to avoid the "market crash" from causing adverse effects on young people.
At the same time, companies should not push the flames to carry out "hunger marketing", but must assume the social responsibility of promoting the healthy development of the market.
Zhao Zhanzhu, deputy director of Beijing Zhilin Law Firm, said that trendy cultural products are more driven by concepts and values to trigger consumer demand. Excessive hype will only overdraft the vitality of the industry in advance.
Market regulation is blind, spontaneous and lagging. When the "invisible hand" fails, the "visible hand" should play a role.
When the enthusiasm for speculation deviates from the law of value, regulators need to follow up in time to help the market return to rationality.
Liu Junhai, a professor at Renmin University of China, believes that a certain degree of encouragement and tolerance should be given to the initial development of new things, but business integrity is indispensable.
If all dreams of “getting rich overnight” and profiting through marketing hype and speculation are not conducive to the healthy development of consumption, the relevant regulatory authorities should promptly take action to “cool down”.
Relevant experts reminded that young consumers should realize that behind the "speculation economy" is the gambler mentality of fantasizing "getting rich overnight."
The space for the preservation of industrialized commodities is extremely limited, and it is difficult to become a high-quality investment channel.
Once these commodities are produced on a large-scale assembly line, ordinary participants are likely to be "harvested" by speculative capital.
When investing, we must be more rational, do what we can, abandon irrational consumption concepts, and avoid vanity and blindly following the trend.
Only in this way can we build a healthy and rational consumer market and trading environment and avoid becoming a victim of the speculation bubble.
Zhao Jianying