Iranian nuclear power: can a de-escalation begin?
The headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.
© Reuters.
Text by: RFI Follow
4 min
This Tuesday, April 6, the countries that negotiated the 2015 agreement in Vienna in Austria meet in the same place, including the United States.
There remain obstacles and mistrust.
Publicity
Read more
Can diplomacy save the Iran nuclear deal?
Concluded in 2015, it had made it possible to limit and control Tehran's nuclear activities.
but Donald Trump then turned his back on this compromise and reinstated sanctions.
Since then, Iran has largely violated its international obligations.
As the Vienna meeting approaches, the Gulf country is showing a hard line.
The United States is certainly making a comeback in the circle of countries in charge of the Iranian nuclear file, from which it left in 2018. The State Department has confirmed the sending of a representative to Vienna, Rob Malley, for discussions with Europeans, Russians and Chinese, but adds that he had not planned to meet his Iranian counterpart.
For Tehran either,
no question of discussing
directly with the representatives of Washington on Tuesday.
Delegations did not plan to sit in the same room.
The Islamic Republic is also firm when it demands that the United States lift all the sanctions that are stifling the Iranian economy.
A condition for Iran to once again slow down its uranium enrichment work.
But beyond these messages of firmness, the question is whether a gradual de-escalation can begin.
Gradual easing of sanctions against Iran's phased return to its international obligations.
"
This is a first step,
" said Rob Malley on Twitter, who had participated in the negotiations in 2015 under Barack Obama.
“
The discussions promise to be difficult,”
he wrote, “
but they are on the right track.
"
A diplomatic marathon, politically delicate for Biden and Rohani
In both camps, the issue of de-escalation is politically risky.
Not so easy for Joe Biden to take the first step.
Because if the American president wants to convince Tehran to reduce its production of enriched uranium, he will have to ease the sanctions that paralyze his economy and domestic politics, such a step would risk being used against him by his opposition and no doubt of to be badly perceived by a part of his opinion.
A balancing act that is all the more difficult for Washington to find after the recent attacks launched against American interests in Iraq by pro-Iran Shiite militias but also after the so-called maximum pressure policy of the Trump administration against Iran culminating in the
elimination of General Soleimani in 2020
.
On the Iranian side either, a step forward could also be badly perceived by the population, two months before the presidential election.
On RFI, Vincent Eiffling, Iran specialist at the Center for the Study of Crises and International Conflicts,
explained
that Iran, "
if we stick only to economic criteria
", would have an interest in doing the first not.
"
Now, we must also take into account the state of mind of a good part of the Iranian population, which is no longer at all as favorable to the nuclear agreement as it was in 2015. A lot of Iranians have the feeling that Iran has been rolled in the flour, that we have given a lot to receive nothing in return.
Taking this into account, taking the first step, for the Rouhani administration and for the camp of moderates, would amount to political suicide in a way.
We must also take into account the pre-electoral context in Iran, where any sign of weakness will have consequences for the upcoming presidential election, especially for the moderate camp today in charge.
"
In the best case scenario, it is a diplomatic marathon that promises to be for Iran and for the six other countries concerned: the United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany.
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
United States
Iran
Nuclear