The growth of business activity in the Russian services sector accelerated to its highest in the last seven months.
According to analytical agency IHS Markit, the corresponding PMI index rose to 55.8 points in March.
The value was the highest since August 2020.
Traditionally, the PMI index reflects the real state of a particular industry.
A reading above 50 points indicates a positive economic situation, below 50 points indicates a stagnation in the sector.
“The growth in business activity was largely driven by stronger customer demand amid weaker restrictions related to the 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19),” IHS Markit said in a report.
The cancellation of quarantine and mass vaccination of the population increased the flow of funds to the service sector, which had a positive effect on the segment.
Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, NRU HSE, spoke about this in an interview with RT.
“Once again, cafes, beauty salons, a fitness club and other organizations are working at full capacity, and mass vaccination has allowed Russians to use these services without fear for their health.
Now we see the implementation of deferred demand, due to which the sphere rebounded.
The gradual recovery of consumer incomes, which sagged somewhat last year, also played a role, ”the expert emphasized.
Note that the demand from foreign partners has also grown.
In March, the increase in new export orders was the highest in a year and a half since October 2019, according to IHS Markit.
This dynamic is largely due to the restoration of trade ties, which were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with RT by Pavel Sigal, the first vice president of the all-Russian public organization for small and medium-sized businesses "Support of Russia".
“Manufacturers have begun to actively purchase Russian raw materials and components, without fear of disruption of supplies, since cross-border transportation has become available again.
Against this background, the business expanded its range of services and directions.
Moreover, some foreign investors have woken up an appetite for risky assets against the backdrop of mass vaccinations in the country, ”Sigal explained.
At the moment, the most noticeable growth in business activity occurs in the field of tourism, non-manufacturing retail, restaurant business, as well as in the field of catering and courier services for the delivery of food and goods, the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev told RT.
As the expert noted, in addition to lifting restrictions, government measures to support enterprises played a certain role in restoring the indicator.
In particular, we are talking about the provision of concessional loans to companies for the payment of salaries to employees, tax deferrals and other regulatory exemptions for business.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier, in 2020, about 4.6 trillion rubles, or about 4.5% of GDP, were allocated to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the same time, small and medium-sized businesses received about 1 trillion rubles.
“It is obvious that without this support, Russian business would not have survived.
Thanks to financial assistance from the authorities, the share of corporate bankruptcies is now comparable to the same indicator in the pre-crisis 2019.
At the same time, preferential loans for salary payments allowed employers to preserve the state as much as possible, which did not cause a sharp jump in unemployment in the country, ”Ostapkovich emphasized.
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Experts believe that the revival in the service sector should lead to an improvement in the situation on the labor market.
In 2020, against the backdrop of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment in the country increased markedly and peaked in August - 6.4%.
Meanwhile, to date, the indicators have already decreased.
So, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, at the end of February 2021, unemployment in Russia dropped to 5.7%.
“Since the beginning of the year, service providers have already noticeably increased the number of vacancies in the segment, and as all remaining restrictions are lifted, employment will only grow.
Current dynamics suggests that by the end of the second quarter of 2021, the unemployment rate in the country will drop below 5.5%, "said Mikhail Zeltser, an expert from BCS World of Investments, in a conversation with RT.
In addition, the positive dynamics in the service sector will allow an increase in the number of consumer services, which will lead to the emergence of new companies on the market, Ostapkovich said.
“In Russia, the service sector does not occupy such a large share in GDP as in countries with developed economies, however, it is significant.
Therefore, the increase in business activity in this area has a positive effect on the acceleration of the economy as a whole, ”the analyst emphasized.
According to the Central Bank's forecast, in 2021 Russia's GDP will show compensating growth in the range of 3-4%, and in 2022 and 2023 the indicator will increase by 2.5-3.5% and 2-3%, respectively.