The world economy shows signs of gradual recovery (global hot spot)

  With the promotion of the new crown pneumonia vaccine, the epidemic has gradually been brought under control, market confidence has been restored, and economic activities affected by the epidemic have gradually returned to normal.

On March 30, the U.S. dollar index rose above 93, and gold was suppressed, falling below the $1,700 mark per ounce, approaching a 9-month low.

  International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva said on March 30 that China and the United States are becoming more and more important in the global economic recovery. By the end of 2021, the GDPs of China and the United States will far exceed those before the epidemic. Level.

  This report will focus on the main manifestations of the improvement in the global economic situation, analyze the current uncertainties facing the global economy, and look forward to the next economic trend.

  Different speeds of economic recovery

  Recently, the British Oxford Economic Consulting Company stated that the world economy is likely to grow by about 6% this year due to the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures and the resumption of business operations due to vaccination.

This will be the fastest growth rate in nearly half a century.

  The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that China's manufacturing PMI was 51.9% in March, up 16.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Reuters reported that the PMI index, which has returned to a growth model, does make people optimistic about China's economic recovery.

  However, there are still differences in the pace of economic recovery.

The latest forecast released by the World Bank on March 26 shows that one year after the global epidemic, East Asia and the Pacific are experiencing an uneven economic recovery.

This year, China is expected to lead the economic recovery in the region, but many countries are still trapped by the epidemic and slow economic growth.

  In this regard, Yao Shumei, a researcher at the China Institute of Macroeconomics, analyzed and pointed out: “The primary reason for this phenomenon is that there is a large gap in the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control in various countries, which restricts the strength and stability of economic recovery in various countries; Different locations in the chain, along with the uneven recovery of the global economy, the degree of benefit is also quite different; third, the industrial structure of each country is different, and there are differences in the ability to withstand the impact of the epidemic, especially the relatively single industrial structure and highly export-oriented economy The recovery process is still very difficult."

  Yao Shumei said: "China's huge production capacity will provide strong support for the restoration of the global industrial chain and supply chain. The stable recovery of China's economy will continue to inject strong momentum into the expansion of global demand. China will continue to be in the recovery of East Asia and the Pacific. Play a leading role."

  Three factors affect stability

  Worldwide, economic recovery is also facing many unstable factors. In this regard, this newspaper interviewed Zhang Manan, the chief researcher of the US-Europe Institute of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

  Zhang Manan divided the current factors that may affect the smooth operation of the world economy into three. The first factor is the impact of the epidemic on the economy.

  Zhang Manan believes that the epidemic is an important factor that directly determines whether the economy can quickly resume normal operations.

She said: "Developed countries have accelerated the vaccination process to enable them to obtain group immunity as soon as possible, while backward countries themselves have suffered a major blow from the epidemic, and at the same time they will face economic shutdowns and even shocks caused by the lack of vaccines."

  The second factor is the ongoing trade frictions across the globe.

Zhang Manan pointed out: “Faced with the epidemic and the sluggish economic situation, many countries have adopted industrial chain return policies, hoping to keep the market in the country. Such an approach will intensify the market share competition among different countries. Among them, the high-tech industry chain The consequences of decoupling are particularly serious. The high-tech sector is an important engine for global economic growth. Trade frictions in this area will hinder global economic development, hit the process of economic recovery, and intensify the game between countries."

  The third factor is the extremely loose global monetary and fiscal policies.

Zhang Manan believes: "Excess liquidity will cause the differentiation of commodity prices and the real economy, which is not conducive to the stability of the economic situation. At present, the government debt ratios and leverage ratios of the United States, Europe and Japan have reached historical highs, and asset price pressures and debt rising pressures will all Bringing financial debt risks. The risks brought about by such a temporary but not permanent fiscal and monetary policy may be further revealed in a few years."

Global cooperation turns crises into opportunities

  Regarding the US$1.9 trillion rescue plan signed by the Biden government on March 12, Yao Shumei said: “This plan will help boost American residents’ income and consumption in the short term, and will benefit the recovery of the world economy. However, with With the implementation of the first two rounds of stimulus bills in the United States, the current fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion has shown a diminishing effect. At the same time, the size of the US government’s fiscal deficit has reached a new high, and many hidden risks have been planted."

  Facing the complex and volatile world economic environment, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes: “It is a good thing for China’s economy to take the lead in recovering. However, in the face of unfavorable external environments, we must adhere to the principle of internal circulation. Double cycle, only in this way can the Chinese economy and the world economy be alive."

  Zhang Manan told this newspaper: “Big crises are opportunities for economic innovation. The elimination of backward production capacity is irreversible, and emerging industries and advanced industries will continue to accelerate global deployment through industrial upgrading. We must turn crises into opportunities. Only in this way can we Effectively promoting the adjustment of my country's economic structure is also more hopeful to help the world get rid of risks and unstable factors."

  Yao Shumei believes that China’s export trade has a significant positive effect on the recovery of the global economy. She analyzed: “First of all, as the world’s largest producer and exporter of epidemic prevention materials, China will continue to assist countries in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and speed up the resumption of work and production for all countries. , Promote the return of the global economy to the normal growth track as soon as possible to provide solid support. Secondly, the current global supply chain is still fragmented due to the impact of the epidemic, and China has a complete range of industries and has promoted the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner. Therefore, Chinese exports will help international trade. Recovery will drive global economic growth from both sides of supply and demand."