China News Service, Beijing, March 31 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Swiss Re Group Chief Economist An Renli (Dr. Jerome Haegeli) said in a video interview with China News Service and other media that China is vital to global economic growth. China’s economy will rebound faster than the United States and Europe, and continue to lead the global recovery.
According to calculations by Swiss Re Research Institute, by the end of 2021, compared with the trend growth rate before the epidemic, the total loss of the epidemic to the global economy is expected to reach 11 trillion U.S. dollars.
In response to the crisis, major central banks around the world have adopted unprecedented economic stimulus measures.
An Renli analyzed that the current large-scale stimulus policies introduced by various economies and the widespread use of the new crown vaccine are driving a strong recovery in the global economy, but the long-term prospects are still unclear.
Due to the base effect, the price index will continue to rise in 2021, the global medium-term inflation risk has risen significantly, and the low interest rate environment will continue for a long time, which may restrict the pace of global economic recovery.
Speaking of China's economic situation, An Renli said that the current Chinese economy is continuing to recover steadily, and there is still relatively active fiscal policy support, and the development of CPI is also within the controllable range.
Based on these factors, Swiss Re is still optimistic that China will become the fastest growing economy in the world. China's economy is expected to grow by 8.3% in 2021, which will continue to lead the global recovery.
He also noted that the focus of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" is to "improve quality and efficiency", and will promote the economy to shift to a growth pattern driven by consumption and innovation.
Driven by relevant policies, China's economy is expected to transform into a more sustainable development model in the medium to long term.
This long-term growth model will not only benefit China, but also benefit the global economy.
In addition, China's efforts in green development, rural revitalization, opening up, innovation and digitalization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will also bring new development opportunities to the insurance industry.
Swiss Re predicts that China will become the main engine of global premium recovery in the future.
Benefiting from many positive factors such as favorable policies, continuous increase in residents’ disposable income, increased risk awareness, and digital development, it is expected that China’s share of premium income in the global market will increase from 10% in 2019 to 19% in 2030; China is expected to increase In the mid-1930s, it became the world's largest insurance market (except for medical insurance business).