The closing price of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 31st, which was the last transaction of this year, was more than 29,100 yen, which was more than 10,000 yen higher than the end of the previous fiscal year, the largest increase ever. ..

The closing price of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 31st was 29,178.80 yen, the highest stock price at the end of the fiscal year in three years, and the transaction for this year and 2020 was completed.



The closing price at the end of the fiscal year was the highest in 31 years since March 1990, and the price increased by more than 10,000 yen compared to the end of the previous fiscal year, the largest increase ever.



The rate of increase is 54%, the largest increase in 48 years since 1972.



In this year's Tokyo market, transactions began in a situation where stock prices were unstable due to the worldwide spread of infection with the new coronavirus.



However, in addition to large-scale monetary easing measures by central banks in Japan and Europe and the United States, the turmoil in the market gradually subsided as the governments of each country clarified their stance of supporting the economy through huge fiscal stimulus. ..



Furthermore, the Nikkei Stock Average has strengthened its upward trend due to the expectation that the world economy will recover due to the spread of vaccines and the economic measures of the Biden administration in the United States, and at the end of last year, it reached the highest level after the burst of the bubble economy. It was renewed, and on February 15, the closing price exceeded 30,000 yen for the first time in 30 years and 6 months.



Stock prices have been relatively strong these days, but market participants said, "The infection has not subsided, and there are strong voices pointing out the gap between stock prices and the real economy. Corporate performance will improve as expected. Whether or not it is the key to stock price trends in the new year. "

Monetary easing and fiscal mobilization behind rising stock prices

The Nikkei Stock Average has risen by more than 50% over the past year.

Behind the significant rise in stock prices is the large-scale monetary easing by the central banks of each country in response to the spread of the new coronavirus and the fiscal mobilization by the government.



A year ago, on March 31, the Nikkei Stock Average was in the 18,000 yen range.

The stock price was well below 20,000 yen from the view that the spread of the new coronavirus would have a serious impact on the world economy.



However, the fact that the central banks of each country, which became more vulnerable to this situation, embarked on large-scale monetary easing one after another gave a sense of security to the financial markets.



The Federal Reserve Board of the United States introduced a virtually zero interest rate policy at an extraordinary meeting in March, and immediately after that, the Bank of Japan doubled the purchase amount of ETFs = exchange-traded funds that make many stocks together. We decided to supply a large amount of money to the financial markets.



In addition, as governments in each country clarify their stance of supporting the economy with huge fiscal stimulus and the financial markets gradually regain calm, stock prices will turn upward.



The Nikkei Stock Average is 23,465 yen on September 3 due to expectations that vaccine development will further progress in Europe and the United States when the closing price recovers to the 20,000 yen level on April 30, one month after the end of March. The price has increased to 53 sen.



In addition, the Democratic Party's victory in the US presidential election in November and expectations for the passage of a bill for additional economic measures in the United States will accelerate the rate of increase in the Nikkei Stock Average.



At the end of last year, the Nikkei Stock Average reached the 27,000 yen level, hitting a new high after the end of the so-called "bubble economy" and hitting a high for the first time in 30 years and 4 months.



Furthermore, on the 15th of last month, it exceeded 30,000 yen for the first time in 30 years and 6 months since 1990 = August 1990.



On the other hand, in recent months, there has been a sense of caution about the impact of rising long-term interest rates in the United States on financial markets, and "I think the speed of stock price increases during the year may have been rapid." Some market participants look back, and the Nikkei Stock Average continues to move around 30,000 yen.

Bullish "Recovery of business performance supports stock price rise"

Regarding the largest increase in stock prices at the end of the fiscal year, Makoto Sengoku, a senior equity market analyst at the Tokai Tokyo Research Center, said, "In addition to large-scale monetary easing, the Bank of Japan's ETF = exchange-traded fund in Japan. The purchase of the stock also supported the psychology of investors. "



On top of that, regarding the future outlook, "It is expected that economic activity will normalize and corporate performance will recover due to the spread of vaccines. It is expected to be revalued, and we expect it to support the rise in stock prices. "

Prudent "Recovery of the real economy and separation of stock prices"

Regarding the largest increase in stock prices at the end of the fiscal year, Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said, "There is a sense of expectation that the economy will recover in the future with accommodative monetary policy and strong economic measures. It has spread to the market. However, when comparing the recovery of the real economy with the stock price, I feel that there is a gap. Since the stock price is rising with expectations, adjustments may be made if the actual economic recovery does not reach expectations. The sex is very high. "



On top of that, he said, "If the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States accelerates, or if the fourth wave of corona spreads more than expected, we will have to revise the scenario of economic recovery and recovery of business performance." ..