(Economic Observation) In the first quarter of "welcome to the exam", why did China's economy frequently win the favor of international institutions?
China News Service, Beijing, March 28th, title: "Welcome to the exam" in the first quarter, why is China's economy frequently favored by international institutions?
Author Liu Liang
In 2020, the Chinese economy has withstood all the pressures and took the lead in realizing a "V" rebound in the world, leaving a deep impression on the international community.
The first quarter of 2021 is coming to an end. Judging from recent economic forecasts issued by many parties, the outside world still has great expectations and confidence in China's economy this year.
International institutions are optimistic about China's economy
The "East Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Semi-Annual Report" recently released by the World Bank pointed out that with the gradual recovery of the global economy, China's economy will grow stronger in 2021 and is expected to achieve 8.1% growth.
Other large economies have suffered severely during the crisis, and are expected to grow by an average of about 4.6%, slightly lower than the pre-crisis growth rate.
Coincidentally, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicts that China’s economy will grow by 8.1% this year. Among the major economies in the world, China’s economic growth is expected to be "one rider"; the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has also cast a "vote of confidence" in the Chinese economy. , China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.8%, maintaining a clear lead among the vast majority of G20 members.
Fitch, an international credit rating agency, raised China's GDP forecast for this year from 8.0% to 8.4%, and said that China is currently the only major economy that has begun to normalize macroeconomic policy settings, and its overall economic performance has been better than expected.
Based on the strong performance of the Chinese economy in the first two months of this year, major international financial institutions have recently raised their expectations for the Chinese economy.
Barclays expects that China's economy will grow by 9.4%, higher than the previously expected 8.4%; UBS will increase China's GDP growth rate from 8.2% to 9%.
Multi-benefit to boost China's economic growth expectations
It is not without reason that China's economy is frequently favored by international institutions.
Many international organizations agree that effective epidemic prevention and control has created a good macro environment for the Chinese economy and is one of the important reasons why the recovery speed of the Chinese economy can always be at the forefront of the world.
During the same period last year, China's economic activities were severely hampered by the epidemic.
However, under the effective prevention and control of the epidemic, China's economy has been able to achieve recovery growth.
According to recent official data, in the first two months of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of major indicators such as China's industry, service industry, investment, and consumption exceeded 30% across the board.
A number of eye-catching indicators also confirm the steady and positive trend of China's economy.
Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said recently that although there have been some local clusters and sporadic epidemics in China this year, thanks to the strong epidemic prevention and control measures, the effective implementation of macro policies, and the accumulation of positive factors supporting economic stability and recovery increase.
Many international organizations also pointed out that with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the rebound in global demand has also driven the rapid growth of China's imports and exports.
Official data show that from January to February this year, China's exports to ASEAN increased by more than 40% year-on-year, and exports to the United States increased by more than 70%. China's foreign investment and imports and exports of goods trade increased by 31.5% and 32.2% respectively.
"Vote of confidence" does not mean "sit back and relax"
Although many international institutions have cast a "vote of confidence" in the Chinese economy, this does not mean that the Chinese economy can "rest back and relax."
Liu Aihua reminded that China's economy is still in the process of recovering growth, and there is still an imbalance between industries and fields.
For example, the consumption and service indicators of some contact and agglomeration industries have not yet returned to their pre-epidemic levels.
Yang Weimin, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of the Economic Committee, also pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that this year China's economy is still in the recovery period from the impact of the epidemic, and it cannot be too blindly optimistic.
On the one hand, the import pressure of overseas epidemics still exists; on the other hand, the proliferation of international liquidity has put pressure on the RMB exchange rate to appreciate, or has an impact on Chinese export companies.
In the face of internal and external pressures, many scholars and experts suggested that China should stabilize the current economic development momentum and improve its ability to resist risks.
In terms of macro policy, it is necessary to avoid a "swift turn", and promptly implement precise policies on weak links in the economy to promote a balanced recovery of the economy.
At the same time, we must be more vigilant and be proactively prepared to deal with various internal and external risks.
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