Three moves to catch the "milk bottle"

　　Our reporter Qiao Jinliang

　　A glass of milk is not only a hot topic of social concern, but also a concern for policy documents.

This year’s Central Document No. 1 proposes to continue to implement the dairy industry revitalization action.

The recently announced "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines that the supply of important agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil, sugar, meat, and milk should be guaranteed.

　　The dairy industry is an important industry in the organic integration of modern agriculture and the food industry. There are more than 1 million dairy farmers and more than 10 million cows in the upstream, 565 large-scale dairy companies in the midstream, and almost every family in the downstream.

In 2018, the state proposed to promote the revitalization of the dairy industry.

What progress has been made in the revitalization of the dairy industry, what will be the situation of the dairy industry this year, and how to ensure the supply of the dairy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan?

Accordingly, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.

　　Dairy consumption growth rate reached 8%

　　"Demand for dairy products has achieved the fastest growth in 15 years." Liu Changquan, director of the Industrial Economics Office of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Industrial Economics Office of the National Dairy Cow Industry Technology System, told reporters that if the total domestic milk production is equivalent to raw milk Measured by the sum of the total imports of dairy products, the total demand for dairy products in 2020 will reach 54.31 million tons, an increase of 8% compared with 2019. This is also the year with the fastest growth in China's dairy consumption demand since 2006.

　　As urbanization advances and income levels increase, consumer awareness gradually deepens, and the potential consumer market will continue to become a real consumer demand.

During the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic, milk sales increased significantly.

　　In recent years, various regions have successively implemented supporting policies for the revitalization of the dairy industry.

Gansu has implemented the dairy industry revitalization action to promote the restructuring of the planting and breeding industry.

Ningxia proposed that the transformation of the dairy industry should "strengthen the base, optimize the structure, improve the quality, cultivate the leader, and promote integration."

Up to now, 31 provinces have issued opinions or work plans for revitalizing the dairy industry in the name of provincial governments, clarifying the main direction of attack.

　　In the view of Liu Yaqing, secretary general of the China Dairy Association, the obvious progress in the modernization of the dairy industry is a major sign that a group of key dairy companies have come to the fore.

Two Chinese companies have entered the top ten global dairy companies. Among them, Yili ranks fifth in the global dairy industry and first in Asia, achieving new breakthroughs; the top 20 dairy companies have a market share of 70%, and domestic brands of infant formula milk The market share of powder exceeds 60%, and the world reputation of dairy brands has increased significantly.

　　"Those who get milk get the world."

Processing enterprises extend upstream and pay more attention to the construction of milk sources.

Now large dairy companies continue to extend upstream, and the level of large-scale farming is also constantly improving.

According to Gao Hongbin, Honorary President of the China Dairy Association, my country's annual dairy cow imports are about 100,000, and last year it imported more than 250,000 cows, reaching a peak.

In the past two years, the merger and reorganization of enterprises has gradually accelerated, and the development pattern of the dairy industry with large-scale breeding and the integration of the entire industry chain as the main body is taking shape.

　　Dairy product prices or a slight correction

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in 2020, the average price of fresh milk in the main producing provinces is 3.79 yuan/kg, and the average CIF price of imported milk powder equivalent to raw milk is 2.91 yuan/kg.

The ratio of the purchase price of domestic fresh milk to the CIF price of imported milk powder equivalent to raw milk continued to decline from 1.39 in January 2020 to a low of 1.12 in May, but the ratio rose to 1.50 in December.

Liu Changquan said that from the comparison of domestic and foreign prices, the purchase price of domestic fresh milk in 2020 will still be higher than the imported milk powder converted to the CIF price of raw milk, and the price of domestic fresh milk will rise sharply in the second half of the year, and the ratio of the two will rebound sharply. The gap in the competitiveness of the domestic and international dairy industry has widened.

　　According to the pasture monitoring data of the National Dairy Cattle Industry Technology System, the unit cost of fresh milk from large-scale pastures has entered a downward trend since September 2014 after years of growth, but has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the second half of 2018.

In 2020, the average total cost per kilogram of raw milk is 3.36 yuan, which is 1.2% higher than the 2019 annual average.

Liu Changquan analyzed that there are many reasons for the increase in the unit cost of fresh milk: First, during the epidemic prevention and control period, farms generally faced problems such as insufficient supply of inputs and labor shortages, resulting in increased feed procurement and labor costs; second, domestic corn and soybean meal Feed costs have risen sharply.

　　After the continuous increase in the price of fresh milk, the profitability of dairy farming has improved to a certain extent.

According to the national dairy industry technology system monitoring pasture data, the gross profit of raw milk production from April to December 2020 will increase from 0.34 yuan/kg to 0.70 yuan/kg, and the gross profit margin will increase from 9.4% to 16.8%.

From the perspective of the ratio of the unit price of fresh milk to the unit cost, in 2020, the domestic milk feed ratio will show a trend of first falling sharply and then slowly rising.

　　"This year, domestic fresh milk prices will be under pressure to adjust." Liu Changquan said that from the international market, the price of dairy products may be slightly adjusted.

At present, supply and demand in the international market are loose, milk prices are in a declining channel, and may continue to fall. The further widening gap between domestic and international milk prices will increase the downward pressure on domestic milk prices.

From the perspective of the domestic market, milk prices are also facing downward factors.

The impact of investment in dairy farming over the past year on the supply and demand relationship will begin to gradually appear. At the same time, the consumption demand for dairy products this year lacks momentum for rapid growth.

On the whole, milk prices will be seasonally adjusted in the first half of the year, and there will be insufficient momentum for price recovery in the second half of the year. Milk prices for the whole year will be lower than 2020 levels.

　　The supply side and the demand side work together

　　The revitalization of the dairy industry requires the joint efforts of the supply side and the demand side to break through three barriers.

Experts believe that the first is to focus on production and ensure sufficient milk sources; the second is to focus on the main body to improve operating efficiency; the third is to focus on quality and increase consumer confidence.

　　Ensuring milk production is the first barrier for the development of the dairy industry.

In 2020, the national milk production will be 34.4 million tons, an increase of 8.2% over 2015 and close to 5% of the total global milk production.

The "Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Revitalization of the Dairy Industry" proposed by nine departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and strive to reach 45 million tons of national milk production by 2025.

　　Wang Junxun, the second-level inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that it is necessary to focus on production, optimize the regional layout, consolidate the main production areas, and open up new areas in the south.

Support the major dairy provinces to implement the development plan for the revitalization of 10 million tons of milk in the region's dairy industry.

Utilize central government funds to support dairy cattle breeding and high-quality pasture cultivation, and implement dairy cattle genetic improvement programs.

Efforts should be made to solve the contradictions such as the unbalanced production and sales area of ​​the dairy industry, the unbalanced product structure, and the unbalanced distribution of benefits, so as to establish a stable dairy industry chain and value chain.

　　The development of family farms is the second hurdle.

The reporter learned that dairy farming has long faced problems such as "weak technology, difficult financing, and high risks".

Liu Changquan stated that it is necessary to improve the production, operation and industrial system based on the development of family farms, focus on strengthening the construction of the socialized service system of dairy farming technology, and solve its shortcomings in breeding and disease management; in accordance with the requirements of the trinity of production, purchase and sale, and financial services Strengthen the construction of dairy farmer cooperative organizations to solve the problems of economies of scale and financing; build a collection, storage and transportation service system and a third-party inspection system to improve the efficiency of its raw milk purchase and transportation.

　　Boosting consumer confidence is the third hurdle.

At present, my country’s per capita milk consumption is relatively low. Wang Junxun said that it is necessary to consolidate the market advantages of liquid milk, develop the market potential of low-temperature milk, and make up for the shortcomings of high-quality products such as cheese as soon as possible.

To satisfy the diversification of consumption with the diversification of dairy products, and to establish the confidence of domestic dairy consumption through satisfied consumption.