The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand in 2021.

As follows from the report of the organization published on Wednesday, March 17, according to the results of this year, the consumption of energy resources in the world will increase by 5.5 million barrels per day - up to 96.5 million barrels per day.

Note that back in February, IEA analysts predicted a more moderate increase in global oil demand in 2021 - around 5.4 million barrels per day.

However, against the background of worsening weather conditions in a number of regions of the world, the agency's specialists improved their assessment.

“Oil consumption in the first quarter of 2021 is likely to be slightly higher than expected due to cold weather in North Asia, Europe and the United States,” the IEA said in a report.

According to experts, cold weather traditionally leads to increased energy consumption.

Under these conditions, demand for oil products, coal and gas begins to grow more actively in many countries.

“Unlike the CIS countries, where light and hot water are often part of the same system based on steam turbines, in Europe, for example, there is no centralized heating.

Therefore, in the EU countries, heating is carried out by heating boilers with electricity.

And for heating and lighting the premises, more energy is required, "said Andrei Maslov, an analyst at Finam Group of Companies, to RT.

In his opinion, the observed growth in world demand for oil is partly due to the rapid recovery of industrial capacities in Asia.

First of all, we are talking about India and China.

“Both states are the most important centers of global industry.

In terms of oil consumption in the world, they occupy a leading position and, in total, surpass the United States.

At the moment, we see that in both India and China, the coronavirus pandemic is declining, and the economies are recovering faster than in the West, ”Maslov added.

According to the expert, as the economies of other countries return to pre-crisis indicators, global consumption of hydrocarbons will continue to grow.

In these conditions, world oil prices will remain at a relatively high level, the analyst said.

At the same time, even in the event of another exacerbation of the coronavirus pandemic and the growth of uncertainty in the global economy, the implementation of the OPEC + deal can support oil prices.

Oksana Lukicheva, an analyst for commodity markets at Otkritie Broker, expressed this point of view in a conversation with RT.

Recall that under the OPEC + agreement, oil exporting states specifically limit the production of hydrocarbons.

By their actions, the countries are trying to achieve a balance between supply and demand on the world energy market.

This policy of the alliance members is designed to keep oil prices from new collapses.

In addition to the efforts of the OPEC + countries, in 2021, a decline in the production of raw materials in the United States may exert some pressure on the world oil supply.

According to the IEA, as a result of the February frosts, oil production in the United States by the end of the year will decrease by 180 thousand barrels per day.

“Producers in Texas, as a southern state, weren't prepared for such a cold snap.

The frosts led to the shutdown of the wells.

The water froze, the gas in the pipelines thickened, the water pipes burst, the electricity stopped flowing into the houses, as there was a sharp increase in consumption, and the stations went out of order.

Thus, the collapse of production led to its reduction, ”explained Oksana Lukicheva.

  • Abnormal cold snap in Texas, USA

  • Reuters

  • © Bronte Wittpenn / Austin American-Statesman / USA Today Network

As Lukicheva suggested, until the end of 2021, world oil prices will remain in the range of $ 60-65 per barrel.

In turn, this state of affairs should have a positive effect on the state of the Russian budget, experts are sure.

Thus, according to Igor Galaktionov, an expert at BCS World of Investments, as a result of the relatively high cost of energy resources, the revenues of the Russian treasury may exceed revenues already this year.

“We believe that in these conditions, the Russian budget can be executed with a surplus in 2021.

At the same time, additional oil and gas revenues for the most part will replenish the National Welfare Fund (NWF) due to the budget rule, "the expert said in a conversation with RT.

As previously calculated by the Ministry of Finance, while maintaining the current oil quotations, the volume of additional receipts to the NWF by the end of the current year may amount to 2 trillion rubles.