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Never in the recent economic history of Germany have consumers reacted so violently to a crisis as in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Last year, private consumer spending collapsed in real terms, i.e. adjusted for price changes, by a full five percent, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Monday.
In current prices the minus was still 4.6 percent.
This was the sharpest decline since 1970, the beginning of the current time series of statistics.
Crises regularly shake up German economic history and consumer confidence.
At the beginning of the 1970s, the first, from today's perspective quite harmless recession had destroyed the Germans' belief in the supposedly endless economic miracle of the post-war period, when an oil supply crisis shook their freshly regained confidence.
The corona crisis is different from its predecessor
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A second oil boycott followed, several currency crises, stock market slumps such as shortly after the turn of the millennium and finally the great financial crisis after the collapse of the US Lehman Bank in 2008.
But the corona crisis is different, even compared to the bank disaster a good decade ago.
"The development differs from the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009, when private consumption was less affected and thus had a stabilizing effect on the German economy," writes the Federal Statistical Office.
Today, however, the slump in private consumption is shaping economic development as a whole.
Everything could have turned out much worse.
Source: WORLD infographic
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The comparatively quick interim recovery in private consumption in the second half of the year despite the historically deep slump in the economy had primarily to do with the labor market, wrote the consulting firm Deloitte in the middle of the crisis last autumn: seven million employees, has significantly cushioned the crash. "
The compilation of the official statisticians on the occasion of World Consumer Day on March 15 unmistakably shows the adjustment of consumers to the everyday life forced by the pandemic.
In contrast to the general decline, private households spent 6.3 percent more on food and beverages last year than in the previous year at current prices.
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"The reasons for this are likely to be that more people worked from home, bought supplies and, due to the lockdown in the hospitality industry, ate less out", is the obvious conclusion of the authority.
The office once again certifies the role of the loser in the closed hospitality industry: consumer spending on hotel and restaurant services fell by 33.2 percent.
The significantly changed mobility behavior of Germans is also reflected in private consumption.
Spending on traffic fell by 11.7 percent.
For many Germans, air, train and bus trips were completely canceled, and the corresponding expenditure fell by 28.6 percent in the first half of the year and by 38.6 percent in the second half of the year.
The majority of commuters have moved to the home office anyway and no longer have any expenses for daily journeys.
Anyone who drives in spite of this is currently primarily using bicycles and their own cars instead of public transport. Citizens want to avoid the risk of infection in mass transport.
Source: WORLD infographic
This change in the private “modal mix” in traffic also had an impact on the demand for automobiles.
After collapsing by 20 percent in the first half of the year - mainly due to the lockdown - vehicle demand rose by 9.9 percent in the second half of the year compared to the same period last year.
Sales of cars were fueled by two state measures: the temporary reduction in VAT from 19 to 16 percent and the sharply increased premiums for the purchase of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
In the case of large purchases such as a car, the reduction in VAT was much more noticeable than in the case of cheaper products.
However, the automakers themselves hardly gave any additional discounts.
This is what Germans especially like to shop in lockdown
The German retail trade has been largely closed since mid-December - the Germans' desire to shop is not affected.
What is particularly popular online and what retailers have to be prepared for after the lockdown.
Source: WORLD / Nadine Jantz
Overall, automobile sales in Germany shrank by 19.1 percent last year, with the boom at the end of the year partially compensating for the heavy losses in March and April.
Sales of brands such as Fiat, Renault and Mercedes were comparatively stable.
The break-ins at Ford and Opel were particularly dramatic.
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As early as the 2009 financial crisis, the state boosted car sales with massive subsidies.
At that time, the scrapping premium of 2500 euros led to a sales boom, especially for smaller cars.
Now the electric car bonus has led to the breakthrough in drive technology.
In December, every fourth new car in Germany was equipped with an electric motor.
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Furniture suppliers also benefited from the lower VAT rate
Since electrified vehicles cost significantly more than comparable models with combustion engines, this development contributed to the increase in private consumer spending on cars.
Suppliers of other durable consumer goods such as furniture or electrical household appliances also benefited from the lower VAT rate in the second half of the year.
They were able to participate in a surge in consumer spending in their division of almost seven percent.
All in all, spending on durable goods plummeted 8.5 percent in the first half of the year to rise 7.8 percent in the second half.
On the other hand, the lowering of the VAT rate “had no decisive effect on the purchase of clothing and shoes and other so-called short-lived consumer goods,” according to the statisticians.
These purchases continued to decline in the second half of the year, albeit a little less than before.
The trade association Germany blames the closure of the shops for this.
The online trade, which is increasing with double-digit growth rates, cannot compensate for this effect, emphasized the HDE several times.
The sales losses of the stationary stores during the closure phase are put at 600 to 700 million euros.
Market insiders only anticipate a sustained recovery in private spending when the consumer climate picks up again across the board, i.e. when job worries subside and fears for health subside.
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The mood is still fluctuating.
The consumer researchers from the Nuremberg-based market monitoring company GfK had recently only promised a slight improvement in the consumer climate for March.
After all, both the desire to buy and income expectations have brightened somewhat afterwards.
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