On Friday, March 12, the cost of AI-92 gasoline at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange updated a historical record.

During the auction, quotations rose to 55.75 thousand rubles per liter - the highest level for the entire period of observations.

However, in the second half of the day the value dropped to 54.57 thousand rubles.

The noticeable increase in the wholesale cost of gasoline is largely due to the high demand for fuel in the country and the simultaneous lack of supply on the market.

Anton Greenstein, an expert at the Hamilton information and analytical center, spoke about this in a conversation with RT.

As the specialist explained, at the beginning of spring there is traditionally a surge in fuel consumption.

At the same time, oil companies have not yet managed to increase production to the required levels, as a result of which prices began to rise.

“Back in early 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak urged Russian fuel companies to increase gasoline stocks from 1.2-1.3 million tons to normal values ​​around 1.7-1.8 million by early spring.

However, the fuel reserves were never fully increased.

In early March, their volume was 1.55 million tons, ”added Grinstein.

In addition, analysts interviewed by RT attribute the record rise in the price of gasoline on the stock exchange to the rise in world oil prices.

Since the beginning of 2021, the cost of energy raw materials of the Brent benchmark has increased by more than 30% and is now in the range of $ 69-70 per barrel.

At the same time, at the auction on March 8, quotations briefly rose above $ 71 per barrel - for the first time since January 2020.

“With such an increase in oil prices, it becomes more profitable for business to supply fuel to foreign markets than to sell it domestically.

This also affects the supply of raw materials and leads to an increase in the wholesale cost of fuel, "said Andrei Gordeev, an analyst at Virgin Oil Group, in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, the dynamics of wholesale fuel prices in Russia has only an insignificant effect on the retail price of gasoline, experts say.

So, since the beginning of 2021, AI-92 fuel on the stock exchange has risen in price by almost 15%, and AI-95 quotes have added about 14%.

At the same time, the average price of AI-92 at Russian gas stations increased by only 2.5% - 44.38 rubles per liter, and the cost of AI-95 - by 2.1%, to 48.03 rubles.

Such data are provided by Rosstat.

“The point is that small independent companies with a low market share buy fuel on the exchange.

In turn, major oil companies sell the bulk of fuel within Russia at their own gas station networks.

These large suppliers restrain the growth of prices at gas stations and cover losses in retail due to the sale of raw materials for export, ”noted Andrei Gordeev.

Price containment

We will remind, on March 9, the Russian government announced the introduction of constant monitoring of prices for goods and services in the country.

The Cabinet of Ministers expects the initiative to promptly respond to a sharp rise in prices for products that are significant for Russians and promptly take stabilizing measures.

Each of the line ministries will be responsible for the price situation in a particular market.

For example, the Ministry of Energy is in charge of gasoline and diesel.

Meanwhile, a special compensating mechanism is already in place in Russia, which makes it possible to restrain the rise in fuel prices at Russian gas stations.

This is a so-called damper. 

Recall that after a sharp rise in the cost of fuel in 2018, the Russian government agreed with oil companies to freeze wholesale prices.

At the same time, it was unprofitable for oilmen to supply fuel to the Russian market at a fixed cost.

Export prices significantly exceeded domestic prices, so it was more profitable for businesses to sell oil products abroad.

As a result, from January 1, 2019, the state began to reimburse companies for lost income when supplying fuel to the domestic market.

Thus, if the prices for fuel within the country are lower than export prices, oil workers receive compensation from the budget.

At higher prices on the domestic market, companies, on the other hand, transfer part of their profits to the treasury.

This state of affairs avoids sharp jumps in the cost of fuel for consumers.

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“We see that the government is actively involved in price regulation, therefore, in case of sharp fluctuations, measures will be taken to prevent price growth.

Moreover, at the moment, the authorities are planning to adjust the damper mechanism in the fuel market in order to index the prices inherent in it in accordance with the level of actual growth in retail value, ”said Artyom Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital, RT.

Already on March 15, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak can hold a meeting with oil workers to adjust the damper.

Writes about this TASS with reference to sources.

As previously stated in the government, the renewal of the compensating mechanism will create conditions for changes in the final retail prices for fuel not exceeding annual inflation.

Against this background, experts interviewed by RT do not expect a significant rise in the price of fuel at Russian gas stations. Thus, according to the forecast of Artyom Tuzov, during the spring retail prices for AI-92 gasoline will be in the range of 44–46 rubles per liter, and the cost of AI-95 - around 49–51 rubles per liter.