Hardly any investment: The vaccination debacle is even affecting the craft

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The hesitation of the federal and state governments with corona vaccinations has a measurable impact on the economy.

In the skilled trades, one of the most employment-intensive industries in Germany, initial hopes of containing the pandemic have turned into uncertainty.

This is why massive investments are being held back, as this year's spring survey by the credit agency Creditreform shows.

“At the time of the survey, efforts by the government to carry out the vaccination campaign quickly were visible, but there is clearly a lack of implementation,” the analysis said.

The Creditreform survey took place in January and February of more than 1,100 companies.

The disappointment about the low vaccination rate is likely to have increased since then.

Of around 12.5 million vaccination doses delivered to Germany, only a good eight million were vaccinated in the middle of this week.

The stocks of more than four million doses are likely to continue to rise sharply in the next few days and weeks, especially since medical practices on a broad front are not to be included in the vaccinations until April.

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Many craftsmen apparently no longer believe that the economic security that an efficient fight against the pandemic would offer will soon emerge.

According to Creditreform, only 49.5 percent of the companies are planning investments in the near future.

This is the lowest value since 2013. "The lack of concrete opening perspectives and thus the chance of an economic normalization are at the expense of investment activity in the skilled trades," said Creditreform.

That could have consequences;

the craft is an economic heavyweight.

According to figures from the Central Association of German Crafts (ZDH), there are around one million craft businesses in Germany.

Together they offer almost 5.6 million jobs.

Almost one in eight employees and more than one in four trainees is thus active in this area.

Net sales reach around 640 billion euros annually (2019).

According to Creditreform, the optimism of the masters and owners is currently suffering from moderate business.

"For the first time since the financial crisis of 2009/2010, there is again a predominance of negative sales reports," write the market watchers.

For example, the situation in the motor vehicle trade and in the food trade, where every second company recorded a drop in sales, “worsened dramatically”.

Construction industry is getting through the crisis well

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All in all, the number of companies with shrinking sales exceeds that of companies with increasing sales this spring by 8.4 percent.

A year ago, the growth companies were still in the majority with 26.9 percent.

Not least in the car dealerships, often with attached workshops, the business closings have an impact on the mood.

Almost 17 percent of the companies in the motor vehicle trade described their business situation as “poor” or “unsatisfactory”, compared to just four percent a year ago.

In the food trade, this share has even quintupled to 19 percent, according to Creditreform.

Bakery branches in closed shopping centers, for example, largely lost their business.

Nevertheless, with a view to the skilled trades as a whole, the following applies so far: “There is no doom and gloom.” At least 63 percent of the companies surveyed rated their business situation as “good” or “very good”.

Twelve months earlier, however, more than 76 percent were among the winners.

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The trades related to construction have a stabilizing effect.

"The construction industry got through the crisis comparatively well and has proven to be robust," said Marcus Nachbauer, chairman of the Federal Association of the Construction Industry, on Thursday in Berlin.

After all, sales in the industry grew by 2.5 percent last year.

However, the momentum is slacking off here too.

The growth expectation for 2021 reduced Nachbauer to a narrow plus of 1.3 percent.

This would amount to a turnover of a good 368 billion euros.

The best thing to do at the moment is everything that has to do with residential construction, such as the construction of the shell or the plumbing and electrical industry.

This year, as in 2020, around 300,000 new apartments are expected to be completed.

On the other hand, the reluctance of the economy to invest as diagnosed by Creditreform can also be seen in the construction companies' order books.

"The propensity to invest in the affected economic sectors will only recover slowly, also in view of the further extended lockdown," said Nachbauer.

The plans of the latest Corona summit to introduce an obligation to test employees on a weekly basis are difficult to implement for construction companies.

"This is hardly feasible for us as a non-stationary industry," said the head of the association.

The regulations are unrealistic.

For example, the responsibility at construction sites where - as is usually the case - employees from several companies are unclear.

“In addition, the rapid tests may only be carried out by trained personnel.

Where should we get this from? ”, Replicas complained and called for more practical solutions, for example with the help of a standardized app.

According to the Creditreform survey, the craftsmen largely foregone state aid.

Only around a quarter of the companies then applied for immediate aid or short-time work allowance.

"The bridging aid from the federal government was rarely applied for," the report said.

More than half of the craftsmen surveyed did not use any Corona aid at all.

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