Before 2025, my country is expected to cross the threshold of high-income countries
"China is a catching-up country, and we have great potential for development." Lin Yifu said that although there is still a gap between some traditional industries in my country and developed countries, in new industries including artificial intelligence, 5G technology, and cloud computing, China It has the advantage of overtaking in curves in other countries.
"Compared with other countries, my country's product research and development cycle is shorter, coupled with China's 1.4 billion population, human capital is sufficient, and entrepreneurs with innovative capabilities are more abundant.
Member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Deputy Director of the Economic Committee
Lin Yifu
Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
Liu Shijin
On March 9th, Lin Yifu, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, deputy director of the Economic Committee, and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, was a guest at the “Internet Video Interview Room of the Press Center of the Fourth Session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee” and accepted it by video connection "Cloud Interview" by many media including Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News.
Lin Yifu is optimistic about China's future economic development trend.
He once pointed out that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China will cross the US$12,700 per capita national income (GNI) threshold and formally enter the ranks of high-income countries.
In Lin Yifu's view: "This will be an important milestone in the history of human economics."
So, what kind of realistic support is behind this prediction?
When China enters a high-income country, will it again widen the gap between the rich and the poor in China?
In response to questions raised by Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News, Lin Yifu said that China has a complete industrial chain, rich industrial categories, and obvious advantages in new technologies including 5G and artificial intelligence. Therefore, China's economic development potential is huge.
At the same time, he pointed out that China's development must not only pursue high growth rates, but also need to solve problems including urban-rural gaps, income gaps, and environmental pollution.
How can China enter the ranks of high-income countries before 2025?
Complete industrial chain and superior new technology,
Have the advantage of overtaking in corners
"By 2035, my country will basically realize socialist modernization, with a per capita GDP reaching the level of a moderately developed country, a significant expansion of middle-income groups, and a significant reduction in the gap between urban and rural regional development and residents’ living standards." This development goal has been written. Included in my country’s "14th Five-Year Plan" and long-term goals for 2035.
The rapid development of China's economy is supported by realistic data.
As of 2020, my country's total GDP has exceeded the 100 trillion yuan mark, and the per capita GDP has also exceeded US$10,000 for two consecutive years.
In this year's government work report, it is proposed that in 2021, my country's GDP growth will reach more than 6%.
"Under this situation, I think that by 2025, China will be able to cross the threshold of the current high-income countries." Lin Yifu said this in a confident tone.
So, what is a high-income country?
Lin Yifu explained that according to the World Bank and United Nations indicators, the current threshold for high-income countries is set as GNI reaches US$12,535.
According to this classification standard, there are currently more than 80 countries and regions in the world belonging to high-income economies.
In Lin Yifu's view, China's entry into the ranks of high-income countries is not a problem.
He explained that in 2019, China's per capita GDP has reached 10,250 U.S. dollars. According to Lin Yifu's prediction, my country's per capita GDP may reach 10,500 U.S. dollars in 2020.
"Under this circumstance, if my country can maintain a growth rate of about 5% during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, then my country will enter the ranks of high-income countries."
"China is a catching-up country, and we have great potential for development." Lin Yifu said that although there is still a gap between some traditional industries in my country and developed countries, in new industries including artificial intelligence, 5G technology, and cloud computing, China It has the advantage of overtaking in curves in other countries.
"Compared with other countries, my country's product research and development cycle is shorter, coupled with China's 1.4 billion population, human capital is sufficient, and entrepreneurs with innovative capabilities are more abundant.
On the other hand, Lin Yifu also believes that China, as the world’s largest single market, has the most complete industrial chain and industry categories. Based on its industrial advantages, China’s economic development potential is huge. Even before 2035, China’s GDP A growth rate of about 8% is also an achievable goal.
Will China's demographic dividend disappear?
Redistribution of rural surplus labor,
There will be dividends
Then, under the inevitable trend of aging, will China's demographic dividend disappear?
In this regard, Lin Yifu explained that the "demographic dividend" in the traditional sense mainly refers to the transfer of surplus labor in rural areas to manufacturing, and the labor productivity of manufacturing is higher than that of the surplus population in rural areas.
Therefore, Lin Yifu proposed that as long as this kind of labor is re-allocated, there will be dividends, which is also an important source of demographic dividends.
Judging from the current situation, Lin Yifu said that the current rural labor force in China still accounts for more than 30% of the total labor force, but the agricultural labor force in developed countries generally accounts for less than 5%, and the United States even has only about 1% left.
Therefore, Lin Yifu said that my country still has room to transfer rural labor to the manufacturing industry.
If such a transfer is achieved, then this will also be a manifestation of China's demographic dividend.
Lin Yifu believes that the development of China's manufacturing industry is no longer limited to the labor-intensive industries in the 1980s, so the labor resources required will not be as intensive as in the past.
Therefore, Lin Yifu believes that we must continue to upgrade the industry, from labor-intensive to capital-intensive industries, and then to technology-intensive industries, from low-value-added manufacturing to high-value-added manufacturing. There will also be dividends in this way.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Wu Yang Yang Yuqi
Beijing report