Chinanews client, Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February.

Many institutions predict that the CPI in February may still be in a negative range year-on-year due to tail-lifting factors.

CPI year-on-year rise and fall trend chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

February CPI fell or expanded year-on-year

　　The wrong month of the Spring Festival led to a relatively high comparison base in the same period in 2020. In January 2021, the CPI increased from 0.2% year-on-year to a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year.

How will the CPI in February change year-on-year?

　　"Food prices have risen overall since the beginning of February, and the demand for Spring Festival has driven the prices of edible agricultural products. However, the increase in pork supply has promoted the decline in prices, making the increase in food prices not as good as the same period in previous years." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the weekly wholesale price of pork has fallen for several consecutive weeks, from 47.47 yuan per kilogram in mid-January (January 11-17) to 38.59 per kilogram at the end of February (February 22-28). Yuan, just over a month, a decrease of 18.7%.

　　"In addition, retail fuel prices have been raised once since the beginning of February, which will bring up non-food prices. Non-food prices are expected to rise. The carryover factor in February was -2%, a further drop of 0.8 percentage points from January. "Liu Xuezhi pointed out that due to the further decline of the tail-lifting factor, the CPI is still negative year-on-year and is expected to be between -0.1% and -0.3%, with a median value of -0.2%.

　　According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast value of 21 institutions for February's CPI year-on-year increase is -0.51%.

If the above-mentioned average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year decline of the CPI in February will be larger than that in January.

Data map: Citizens are buying pork.

Photo by Sun Rui

What is the future trend of CPI year-on-year?

　　Considering the supply and demand situation, “It is expected that in mid-to-early March, the price of live pigs will hardly show a sustained upward and downward trend, or maintain fluctuations. From mid-to-late March to April, the probability of a rebound in domestic pig prices is relatively high.” Zhuo Innovative information analyst Ma Liyuan pointed out.

　　If the price of live pigs rebounds, will it lead to a year-on-year increase in CPI in March?

"Considering the high price increase in March 2020, it is expected that the CPI in March this year will be between -0.1% and -0.3% year-on-year." Professor Cao Heping from the School of Economics of Peking University told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

　　Looking at the whole year, the expected target set out in the 2021 government work report is that the annual consumer price increase will be about 3%, which is a 0.5% drop from the 2020 expected target.

　　"This year, taking into account the price lift-up factors and the new price increase factors, the expected target for consumer price increase is set at about 3%, which is lower than last year's expected target, indicating that the government is confident in controlling the CPI at a relatively low level. ." Sun Guojun, a member of the Party Leadership Group of the Research Office of the State Council, said at a briefing by the State Council Information Office a few days ago.

　　In Sun Guojun's view, food prices account for a high proportion of CPI.

In recent years, grain production has been harvested year after year, the supply of agricultural products is guaranteed, and the production capacity of live pigs has basically recovered, which is conducive to maintaining stable prices.

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