Why is this year's GDP growth rate of more than 6%?
Yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang stated in his government work report that the expected target for this year is set at more than 6%, taking into account the recovery of economic operations, which is conducive to guiding all parties to focus on promoting reform and innovation and promoting high-quality development.
He Lifeng, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China’s economy is resilient and strong for development. “We have the confidence, determination, strength, and confidence to achieve the goal of over 6% GDP growth this year.”
Why set this goal?
Developed based on the current economic recovery situation and the influence of last year's base number and other factors
Yesterday, the State Council Information Office held a briefing to interpret the government work report.
As a member of the government work report drafting group, Sun Guojun, a member of the Party Leadership Group of the Research Office of the State Council, said that the expected target for this year is set at more than 6%, which is based on the current economic recovery and the influence of the base last year.
Sun Guojun introduced that last year's government work report did not propose a quantitative target for GDP growth because of great uncertainties.
This year, the target of economic growth is set at over 6%, taking into account many factors.
On the one hand, taking into account the current economic recovery, the second quarter of last year "turned from negative to positive", and the situation continued to improve in the third and fourth quarters. It is expected that the economy as a whole will maintain stable operation this year.
On the other hand, taking into account the influence of last year's base number, the economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year may rise more due to base reasons, but the quarter-to-quarter growth rate of the whole year will be relatively stable.
In addition, taking into account the need to maintain sustained and healthy economic development, when determining the expected GDP target for this year, we must not only consider the situation this year, but also take into account the development needs of the next year and the next, and try our best to achieve the expected target within the next year. Don’t go up and down and keep the economy running smoothly for a long time.
Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics and a special researcher of the State Council’s Counselor’s Office, said that this year’s growth target is set at more than 6% because the main contradiction in China’s economy is not the problem of total volume or speed, but the quality and efficiency of economic growth. problem.
Putting forward this goal requires all parties to focus more on quality and efficiency. At the same time, we must also let everyone know that the main difficulty in economic work is still growth in quality and efficiency.
On the other hand, China is still a developing country and still has to maintain development.
"On the whole, this is a scientific and reasonable goal set after considering all factors."
What are the positive effects of this goal?
Play the expected guidance, form a joint force, and make the departmental steps coordinated to the central strategic deployment
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said that the various macroeconomic goals set by the government work report are to guide the expectations and form a joint force, so that the departmental steps can be coordinated to the central strategic deployment.
"The GDP growth target of 6% or more is the bottom line management, which will be reflected in the normal operation of the Chinese economy this year, completely free from the impact of the epidemic and the previous economic shock. The GDP growth rate of 6% means that the actual income growth of residents will be 5 %, and corporate profits increase by 8%, which also means that fiscal revenue may be in the range of 5% to 6%." Liu Yuanchun emphasized that the growth rate above 6% is the growth rate required for my country to move to the modernization process and enter the normal operation. .
"We see that the report mentioned that there must be retention and pressure, taking into account the differences in different regions and different departments, we must give full play to the enthusiasm of each department and give them space. The second important thing is to focus more on reform in multiple goals. Focus on strategic deployment and high-quality development, rather than simply focusing on the economic growth rate." Liu Yuanchun said.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that in the "14th Five-Year Plan", China has already played down its GDP growth target, and instead has strengthened its concerns about people’s livelihood, care for microcosms, and overall consideration of development issues. This transformation is an adaptive change to adapt to changes in the global pattern and the impact of the new crown epidemic.
Cheng Shi said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused losses to global economic growth. While seeking a growth rebound, it is more important to pursue the employment opportunities and improvement of well-being created by growth.
The 2021 "two sessions" postponed and strengthened this line of thinking.
In the government work report, GDP growth has set a bottom-line target of "over 6%", which emphasizes the importance of quality growth behind the growth rate and guides the penetration and transmission of social resources and policy effects from the macro to the micro.
Can this goal be achieved?
China's economic development is very strong, with strength and confidence to achieve this year's goals and tasks
The government work report pointed out that my country's development this year still faces many risks and challenges.
From an international point of view, the epidemic is still spreading globally, and there are increasing uncertainties in the international situation.
From a domestic perspective, problems such as the foundation for economic recovery are not yet solid, household consumption is still restricted, and the potential for investment growth is insufficient.
So, can the goal of GDP growth of more than 6% be achieved?
According to Xinhua News Agency, He Lifeng, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated on the "Ministerial Channel" of the two sessions yesterday that from the first two months of this year, China's economy continued to maintain a stable and positive trend, and some leading indicators remained within the range of prosperity.
Power generation and electricity consumption have maintained an increase of more than 20%, and freight index such as daily railway loading volume has maintained an increase of more than 10%.
"All this shows that Chinese companies have a strong ability to adapt to changes in the situation, the resilience of China's economy, and the stamina of China's economic development. Therefore, we have the confidence, determination, strength, and confidence to achieve this year's goals and tasks. ."
Due to the base number, my country's economy is expected to experience a substantial year-on-year increase in the first quarter of this year, and it may show a trend of "high before and low" throughout the year.
Regarding the expected growth target for this year, Yao Jingyuan believes that the Chinese economy achieved a "V-shaped reversal" last year.
This year is in the recovery range, and maintaining a good growth is not a problem from the data.
"Some large international organizations predict that China's economic growth will reach more than 8% this year. Based on last year's low base, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year may reach double digits."
Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi Cheng Weimiao Gu Zhijuan Hou Runfang Pan Yichun