The "14th Five-Year Plan": Opening a new golden period for China's development
China News Weekly reporter/Xu Dawei
Issued in the 986th issue of China News Weekly in 2021.3.8
After the historic completion of the century-old goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, China will embark on its second century of new voyage.
In the next 30 years, China's national development journey will be divided into two strategic stages: By 2035, China will basically achieve socialist modernization; by the middle of this century, China will become a powerful socialist modern country.
As the first five-year plan for the new journey of modernization in 30 years, the "14th Five-Year Plan" is of special significance.
Xin Ming, a professor at the Central Party School (National School of Administration), told China News Weekly that China’s comprehensive modernization is based on a higher starting point of building a well-off society in an all-round way. A major turning point in comprehensive modernization.
With the evolution of development concepts, China's "five-year plan" has evolved from an economic development plan to a comprehensive national development plan. The planning process has become more scientific, democratic, and standardized, and a set of procedural norms has been formed.
Ma Liang, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of Public Administration, believes that China's planning adheres to a plan that must be implemented and promises, and the role of the vane and baton of planning is becoming increasingly prominent.
The five-year plan is a development tool to promote the realization of national goals
Zheng Yongnian, dean of the Institute for Advanced Studies of Global and Contemporary China at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), told China News Weekly that the Communist Party of China is a mission-oriented political party that achieves governance by fulfilling the mission promised to the people.
In his view, the Communist Party of China can adopt a five-year or even longer plan and consider long-term interests in order to realize the mission that the party needs to perform.
On May 14, 1953, China began to implement the first five-year plan. The main goal set by the plan was to establish a preliminary foundation for China's industrialization.
By the end of 1957, the "First Five-Year Plan" was over-fulfilled ahead of schedule, and new industrial sectors such as aircraft manufacturing, automobiles, tractors, power generation equipment, mining equipment, heavy and precision machinery, and defense industry were built.
Shi Jianguo, a researcher at the Central Party History and Literature Research Institute, told China News Weekly that the "First Five-Year Plan" is actually a five-year plan that China is formulating and implementing.
Throughout the "First Five-Year Plan" period, the plan has been revised for five years.
However, after the "First Five-Year Plan", the preparation and implementation of the Five-Year Plan has experienced a tortuous journey.
Wu Li, a researcher at the Institute of Contemporary China of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly that since the completion of the socialist transformation in 1956, China has entered the era of a planned economy of single public ownership, and the five-year plan has become a mandatory plan.
For China, which is still in the early stages of industrialization, various resource surveys and statistical information that are the basic basis for planning cannot be obtained in time, making it difficult to formulate plans.
Using a five-year plan to guide economic and social development is an important means of the Chinese Communist Party to govern the country. The difficulty lies in how to scientifically formulate the country's development goals.
Starting from the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" and drawing lessons from past history, the goal setting of the plan tends to be scientific and reasonable.
Especially since the "Ninth Five-Year Plan", the planning process has become more scientific, democratic, and standardized.
Yan Yilong, deputy dean of the National Research Institute of Tsinghua University, called the central government's decision-making process based on the five-year plan a brainstorming decision-making model that concentrates the wisdom of all parties and integrates science into democracy.
Yan Yilong told China News Weekly that the decision-making circle of the five-year plan is divided into three levels. The decision-making level guides the drafting of the text, grasps the overall direction, puts forward opinions, conducts checks, and is responsible for the final decision.
The drafting and compilation level concentrates the opinions of all parties and is responsible for the drafting of the documents.
The participating level includes relevant departments and localities, members of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, special committees, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, think tanks, and the public. The role is to provide suggestions.
Xin Ming pointed out to China News Weekly that in the five-year plan, the party put forward planning recommendations, which are reviewed by the People's Congress and then become a national development plan. This is the interaction of the party, the government, and the public, each playing its own role.
In Ma Liang's view, the preparation of the current Five-Year Plan has ensured its science and democracy through many aspects.
First of all, there is a high degree of participation of experts, including experts in the field of science and technology, as well as practical experts from government departments. The participation of experts ensures the scientific nature of the plan.
The second is the high degree of public participation.
Thirdly, in the process of planning and soliciting opinions, the opinions and suggestions of government departments and related organizations at all levels can be obtained as widely as possible, and agreement and consensus can be reached through several steps, so as to lay a consensus foundation for the smooth implementation of the plan.
Finally, the drafting, review, verification and discussion of the plan formed a relatively standardized procedure.
Benefiting from the increasingly scientific and standardized formulation of the five-year plan, China has demonstrated a strong ability to achieve national goals. For example, 22 targets in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" have been completed 20, and 24 targets in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" have been completed. 23 indicators were completed.
At the end of 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission's mid-term evaluation report on the "13th Five-Year Plan" showed that the 25 main indicators proposed in the plan are generally progressing smoothly, 2 indicators have been completed ahead of schedule, and 19 indicators have reached the expected progress.
Yan Yilong believes that the Five-Year Plan is a development tool for China to promote the realization of national goals. It has formed a national goal governance system. A large number of quantitative indicators in the plan have further clarified the path to achieve national goals.
Coordinate the relationship between the plan and the market
The national plan is a complex economic and social system engineering, and how to coordinate the relationship between the plan and the market is very important.
In the 1990s, the view of "state planning failure" prevailed for a while, and the point of contention was whether a market economy could have a state plan.
The 1996 World Bank report "From Plan to Market" gave a historical verdict on the national planning system, and believed that national planning was inherently infeasible due to its deep-level inefficiency.
Some former socialist countries cancelled state plans and began to integrate with the Western capitalist system.
These "transition countries" have experienced a long and painful "shock therapy", and the per capita GDP of many "transition countries" has not returned to the level at the beginning of the transition after 20 years.
Intelligent sorting robots used in the logistics industry.
Figure/Zhongxin
However, China has chosen a completely different path. On the one hand, it is transforming to a market economy, and on the other hand, it uses medium and long-term plans to promote the country's development.
Peter Nolan, a professor at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, believes that one of the lessons of the former Soviet Union’s transition is to confuse the command economy with the national plan. While canceling the command economy, it also canceled the plan. China’s success lies in combining these two The people are separated.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, in a debate about “plans” and “markets,” some people advocated abandoning the term “state regulates the market and markets guide enterprises” put forward by the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and called for reforms Increase the weight of the planned economy; others have accused that the implementation of marketization is to change the socialist system and implement the capitalist system.
In early 1992, Deng Xiaoping made a southern speech and once again emphasized: "A little more planning or a little more market is not the essential difference between socialism and capitalism. Both planning and market are economic means." Shi Jianguo told China News Weekly. Under the guidance of the spirit of Deng Xiaoping's talks in the south, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China established the goal of reforming the socialist market economic system.
Xin Ming believes that China’s way of dealing with the relationship between plans and the market is to "do their own things and walk on two legs. Where vitality is needed, the market should be fully utilized. The chaos and disorder of the market depends on plans. get over".
In the process of advancing the national plan, another crucial mechanism is how to clarify the boundary between the government and the market.
Zheng Yongnian believes that letting the market play a decisive role does not mean that the government withdraws from the economy.
He told China News Weekly that today China’s market is a diversified interactive market with a mixed economy. The top of the market is state-owned enterprises composed of state-owned capital, and the bottom of the market is private capital composed of a large number of small, medium and micro enterprises. The middle layer of mutual cooperation between state-owned assets and private capital.
Zheng Yongnian uses the concept of "internal market" to summarize the Chinese model, that is, a state-led market economy.
"This market is not an anarchic market, but is composed of a set of rules." Zheng Yongnian said, under this set of rules, the three layers of capital have their respective roles and divisions.
Wu Li told China News Weekly that the five-year plan is an indispensable method and means for the government to play a role in economic development.
The five-year plan has a certain degree of guidance, and it also carries out rolling adjustments in the goals.
The economic function of the government is definitely not a question of the size of power, nor is it simply a question of strengthening or weakening functions, but a question of how the government and the market functions should be properly divided and put in place.
The matrix mobile phone live broadcast room on display at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in 2021.
Figure/Zhongxin
Goal of governance from a big country to a powerful country
In the "Proposal" draft of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the content of the plan is not only economic and social development, but also scientific and technological innovation, deepening reform, rural revitalization, regional development, cultural construction, green development and even national defense construction.
Xin Ming believes that the five-year plan for Chinese society is not just a plan for economic and social development, but an overall plan for the development of Chinese society from a systematic perspective.
Starting from the "Sixth Five-Year Plan", China's five-year plan has added social development content, and the plan's indicators have changed from economic-based to non-economic.
The "sixth five-year plan" economic indicators accounted for 60.7%, and the non-economic indicators accounted for 39.3%.
As for the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", economic indicators accounted for only 12.5%, and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" accounted for only 16%. Most of the indicators were non-economic indicators such as education, technology, resources and environment.
The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" changed the National Economic and Social Development Plan into a National Economic and Social Development Plan.
Shi Jianguo believes that although it is a word difference, it reflects the functional positioning of mid- and long-term planning under the socialist market economy system, and also reflects China's changes in development concepts, government functions, and development methods.
Xin Ming believes that China has entered a new stage of development with different development requirements, development goals, and development methods. This means that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be a brand new and pioneering five-year plan.
"It will not only lead the next 5 years, but even consider starting and laying a good foundation for the development of the next 15 or 30 years." Xin Ming said.
In Zheng Yongnian's view, the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a comprehensive plan that meets people's overall development needs.
Zheng Yongnian believes that China has changed from a simple and extensive quantitative development to a quality development, and high-quality development has become the consensus of the whole party of the Communist Party of China.
However, the most important economic growth target in the plan has been downplayed. Unlike the previous formulations such as medium-to-high-speed development or doubling, the "Proposals" of the "14th Five-Year Plan" did not mention specific growth rate indicators, and replaced them with comprehensive indicators. Development goals.
This means that the path-exploring "14th Five-Year" plan is more flexible.
Ma Liang believes that the unbalanced development of China's various regions, fields, and departments is the main challenge that urgently needs to be broken in the future. This will be the key point of the Chinese Communist Party's governance for a long time to come.
In particular, speeding up rural revitalization on the basis of poverty alleviation, continuing to narrow the gap between regions, urban and rural areas, and achieving common prosperity are the top priorities of the future governance program.
And innovation-driven development will become the most important development model choice in the future.
The ruling goals of the Communist Party of China are going from a big country to a powerful country, and will usher in great development in all aspects and fields. The proposal of these goals means that a modern socialist country is ready to emerge, and it also means that the concept of governance must be more focused on the people. .
The "double cycle" is to solve the challenges in China and abroad
The "Proposals" of the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to accelerate the establishment of a "new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles."
Yan Yilong told China News Weekly that the "double cycle" is based on the domestic cycle.
To form a large domestic market, the challenge lies in the lack of effective demand. Expanding domestic demand has become the strategic basis for smoothing the domestic cycle.
The expansion of domestic demand is mainly to drive the growth of the national economy through the expansion of domestic investment and consumption.
Although the volume of China's consumer market is large, the growth potential of the consumer market still needs to be tapped.
In 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents is 21,210 yuan, which is a big gap with developed countries.
From 2013 to 2019, the average contribution rate of China's final consumption expenditure to economic growth is about 60%, which is more room for improvement than the 70% to 80% level of advanced economies.
From the perspective of the relationship between supply and demand, the main contradiction facing China’s economic operation at present and in the future is still on the supply side. The supply structure cannot adapt to changes in the demand structure, and the variety and quality of products and services cannot meet the needs of multi-level and diversified markets. .
In November 2020, Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council pointed out in his article "Accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic and international double cycles as the main body" and pointed out that the key to building a new development pattern lies in the realization of economic circulation. The connection with the industry is unimpeded.
The fundamental requirement is to enhance the innovation and relevance of the supply system, solve all kinds of "stuck necks" and bottlenecks, and smooth the circulation of the national economy.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is considered by the academic circles to be a period of strategic opportunities for China. However, China continues to deepen its opening up and participate in shaping the new global landscape still facing considerable challenges.
Zheng Yongnian told China News Weekly that what the "double cycle" wants to solve is the challenge of China and abroad, and how to coordinate internal and external rules.
Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote an article that in important international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, as well as APEC, G20, etc., China’s influence has been rising in recent years, but overall Above, these international organizations and multilateral organizations are still mainly under the dominance of developed economies such as Europe and the United States, and China's integration and voice are obviously insufficient.
Because of this, it is an important task during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to increase China's integration with the world economy by expanding opening up.
Zheng Yongnian believes that the "internal loop" is not only about taking advantage of China's huge domestic market, but also about unifying China's internal rules.
On the one hand, China needs to learn and digest the legal and reasonable advanced rules in the world; on the other hand, it needs to adopt a multilateral and open attitude in the formulation of new rules. interest".
China News Weekly, Issue 8 of 2021
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