Every morning, Nicolas Barré, editorial director of Les
Échos
, takes stock of a current economic issue.
Today, he returns to Bercy's desire to accelerate spending as part of the recovery plan intended to fight the Covid-19 crisis.
Should more be done for the recovery?
The government wants to accelerate its 100 billion plan without increasing the envelope.
The debate is open...
"Yes, perhaps we should see an American effect: in the United States, Joe Biden has impressed other Western countries by passing a gigantic stimulus plan of 1.9 trillion dollars, which represents almost 10% of the American GDP Hence the question: our recovery plan of 100 billion euros, or less than 5% of the GDP, is it sufficient? François Bayrou, the commissioner for the plan, even pleaded for a plan to 250 billion.
And he was politely rebuked by Bercy ...
Yes because this battle of numbers, in reality, does not make much sense.
First, the comparison with the United States is misleading because the American plans include social measures, for example an increase in the allowance envelope for the unemployed, which are covered here by our social system.
The real question, however, is whether this money is being spent properly and at the right pace.
On this point, Bercy believes that we are not there yet and that we must accelerate.
This is what Bruno Le Maire explained on Monday, who finds himself in the rare position of a Minister of Finance wanting to spend billions faster!
Since the beginning of the year, the State has spent about three billion per month for the recovery, or 750 million per week ...
And this concerns thousands of companies ...
More than 30,000 have benefited from it according to Bercy.
So accelerate these expenses for what?
The bulk of the effort must be on re-industrialization.
The envelope planned for the relocation of critical industries, for example in health, will be revised upwards, from 250 to 850 million.
As well as subsidies for industrial investments.
Bercy also wants to accelerate on one of the black spots of our companies: digitization, where we are lagging behind our European neighbors.
Another area: the recovery plan has started to finance the deployment of electric car charging stations on the highway.
It is also planned to invest in new rail links, in the energy transition ... This recovery plan is in fact a multitude of projects that should help support the economy while we have not left the health crisis.
It is too early to say if this 100 billion will be enough.
But we can bet that the closer we get to the presidential deadline, the more the competition for ideas to spend more will intensify.
Forgetting in passing that all this money, we borrow it ... "