In the worst scenario, the hotel and catering industry will only gradually reopen from September, but will immediately recover strongly, says ABN AMRO in the economic forecast on Monday.
"People are eager to get out again", it sounds.
The bank also predicts that the economy will grow again this year, after a major blow last year.
Nevertheless, the number of bankruptcies and unemployed people is rising this year.
The bank works with two scenarios for the outlook.
In the base scenario, the country will reopen at the beginning of June, in the negative scenario, the lockdown will last longer.
In the first case, the catering industry opens at the end of June, in the second case, cafes and restaurants are not allowed to open their doors until September.
But in both scenarios the sector will immediately rebound relatively strongly.
When the catering industry opens at the end of June, there will be a growth of 40 percent for the entire year.
In the other case, growth will be limited to 20 percent.
However, neither scenario shows such an increase as to make up for last year's sharp decline.
"People are eager to get back to outdoor activities," says the bank, which also thinks consumption will increase by 1.8 percent in the third quarter and by 4.1 percent in the second quarter.
For the full year, the bank expects a consumption contraction of 0.3 percent in the base scenario and a contraction of 5.4 percent in the negative scenario as a result of the lockdown.
Consumption should return to normal by 2022.
ABN AMRO expects more bankruptcies and unemployment
The big question, however, is which companies can survive without government support after the lockdown, says ABN AMRO.
If all support measures, including tax deferments, are discontinued, more companies will no longer be able to pay off their debts and thus go to waste.
The peak is predicted to be in the spring of 2022, with 1,500 bankruptcies.
Those bankruptcies, and the discontinuation of NOW support for wage costs, are causing more unemployment.
By the end of this year it would amount to 5.5 percent of the working population, compared to 3.6 percent now.
Despite the corona crisis, unemployment has fallen sharply in recent months, but according to the bank that is only temporary.
The Dutch economy is expected to increase by 2.1 percent this year and by the end of the year will be approximately at the level it was before the crisis.
The lost growth is only gradually being overtaken, with a growth of 4 percent in 2022. In the past year, the economy of our country shrank by 3.8 percent.