(Economic Observation) Under the new situation, how can China's economy be stable and far-reaching?
China News Service, Beijing, February 28 (Liu Liang) This year is the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In the face of complicated domestic and foreign situations, how China's economy can be stable and far-reaching has attracted much attention.
The Guanghua School of Management of Peking University recently held an analysis meeting on China's economic situation and policy prospects. Participants at the meeting have "taken the pulse" of China's economic development.
Now, the world is facing major changes unseen in a century; China's reforms have also entered the deep water zone, and economic development has entered a new normal.
With many factors intertwined, the challenges China's economy needs to deal with are increasing and complex.
Facing the current economic situation, Liu Qiao, dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, believes that total factor productivity will become the most important driving force for China's economic growth.
"In the period of industrialization, it is relatively easy to increase total factor productivity, but after industrialization is over, it will become more difficult to maintain a high total factor productivity growth rate. This is currently the main challenge facing China."
"The key to coping with this challenge is to find the most solid source of China's total factor productivity." Liu Qiao believes that from the reality, China still has the corresponding basic conditions.
For example, China has the possibility of "re-industrialization" and the infrastructure it needs; the rapid development of manufacturing has brought room for the growth of total factor productivity; the deepening of reform and opening up will release more dividends.
At present, China's reform has entered a deep water zone, and how to seek breakthroughs in the future is also the focus of attention of the participants.
Zhou Li'an, deputy dean of the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, emphasized that “reforms affect the whole body and are complicated. We must recognize its arduousness.”
He pointed out that under the current background of China's efforts to build a new "dual cycle" development pattern, China should base itself on looking for growth drivers from within, and deeply tap reform dividends.
At the same time, we must have the courage to break the constraints of all parties and promote institutional innovation.
"If the reform plan does not break the pattern of vested interests, the reform may only become a mere formality or a superficial."
Throughout the universe, the advantages of China's huge consumer market have become increasingly apparent.
But at present, the consumption rate of Chinese residents is still relatively low.
Participants pointed out that to form a new development pattern dominated by the domestic cycle, it is also necessary to improve consumption power and willingness.
"The low consumption rate of residents is the blocking point for the smooth domestic cycle, and the new urbanization is the basic point for the smooth domestic cycle." Xu Xianping, a distinguished professor at the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, said that a new human-centric urbanization will be the biggest domestic demand. At present, China has a large number of migrant workers entering cities, and it is recommended to speed up the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population through the "increased stock".
He said that urbanization is the only way for China to realize modernization. At present, China's urbanization is still in the accelerated development stage, and migrant workers are potential targets for expanding middle-income groups.
"Only by reducing farmers can we enrich farmers, and wealthy farmers can expand domestic demand."
In his view, to accelerate the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, the meaning of the question is also to protect the core demands of migrant workers.
Specifically, he proposed three key measures: one is to strengthen the construction of affordable rental housing; the second is to implement comprehensive policies to ensure the education of children who move with them; and the third is to accelerate the equalization of basic public services.
The people are the foundation of the state, and the foundation is solid.
Under the current situation, doing a good job in the “six stability” and “six guarantees” is still an important task at the moment.
Participants suggested that in terms of policy, countercyclical adjustment policies should not be eager to withdraw in the short term. Macroeconomic policies in the post-epidemic era still need to strengthen precision drip irrigation, improve quality and efficiency, and better serve the national strategy and national economy and people's livelihood.
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