Calmly look at the "unconventional" growth of steel consumption
Li Xinchuang
In 2020, the national crude steel output reached 1.053 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; steel consumption was 985 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, a record high for both.
Is the rapid growth of steel consumption and the rapid release of steel production capacity sustainable?
The author believes that this must be carefully analyzed, treated rationally, and put into scientific response.
2020 is an extremely extraordinary year. As the basic industry of the national economy, my country's steel industry has withstood the test of the epidemic, focused on ensuring supply, stabilizing employment, promoting development, and supporting the domestic economic recovery.
In terms of growth, the construction industry is the main driving force for my country’s steel consumption to reach a record high. In 2020, steel consumption in the construction industry will reach 575 million tons, an increase of 69 million tons year-on-year; steel consumption in the machinery and energy industries will increase by 2.1% and 2.1% respectively. 4.2%.
In terms of consumption intensity, both GDP and fixed asset investment steel consumption intensity are rebounding. The steel consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP reached a low point of 88 kilograms in 2017, and it will be 97 kilograms in 2020; After falling to a low of 111 kg in 2016, it began to rebound, and in 2020 it will be 190 kg.
It should be pointed out that the growth of steel consumption in 2020 is "unconventional", which is very similar to the high growth of steel consumption driven by investment in 2009. It is necessary to calmly look at the current high growth of steel consumption, which may bring high-quality development to the steel industry. Influence.
In 2020, the investment in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry will increase by 27.5% year-on-year, which is much higher than the average growth rate of manufacturing investment. The increase in short-term steel consumption expectations may further drive the industry's investment impulse and cause a new stage of investment waste.
In the medium and long term, the rapid growth of steel consumption is unsustainable.
Especially under the requirements of carbon peak and carbon reduction, the overall steel production and consumption will be in a slow downward trend. With the continuous improvement of production efficiency and the increase of supply capacity, it is very likely to trigger a new round of supply and demand imbalance in the industry.
From the perspective of promoting carbon emission reduction, the iron and steel industry accounts for about 15% of the country’s total carbon emissions. It is the industry with the largest carbon emissions among the 31 sectors of the manufacturing industry. It is the top priority for implementing carbon emission reduction targets. The task is urgent and The arduous nature, the rapid growth of steel consumption and crude steel output, is not conducive to achieving the carbon peak target.
In addition, my country's iron ore dependence on foreign countries exceeds 80%, and the price of imported iron ore has skyrocketed, which has seriously affected the normal production and operation of steel enterprises, and the problem of iron ore resource protection has become prominent.
In view of this, the steel industry should scientifically respond to the "unconventional" rapid growth of steel consumption.
One is to control the excessive growth of output.
Use environmental protection, carbon emissions, energy consumption and other restraint measures, and use information technology to strengthen early warning to prevent the excessive release of crude steel output; play a policy-oriented role, study restrictions on the export of billets or low-end products, encourage steel imports and other policies to ease domestic crude steel Supply pressure creates a higher level of supply and demand balance.
The second is to guide green consumption.
Carry out the research and development and application of green material-saving products, and realize the reduction of steel consumption by improving the consumption quality and grade of downstream users.
The third is to accelerate the low-carbon layout.
Formulate the carbon peaking action plan and roadmap for the steel industry as soon as possible, and carry out the carbon peaking action.
Taking "carbon reduction" as the starting point, optimizing energy use and process structure, promoting the coordinated reduction of pollutants and carbon emissions in the steel industry, so as to ensure the coordinated development of demand and carbon reduction and emission reduction.
The fourth is to strengthen resource protection.
Increase the supply capacity of existing companies’ overseas equity ore; accelerate the construction of a scrap steel processing and distribution system, improve domestic and foreign scrap steel resource guarantee capabilities, and reduce iron ore demand.
For iron and steel companies, they should look at the market rationally, arrange investment and production scientifically, and avoid excessive economic burdens due to future decline in industry profits.
Entering a new stage of development, companies must thoroughly implement new development concepts, anchor high-quality development, comprehensively enhance competitiveness, and lead and create new demands.
(The author is Secretary of the Party Committee and Chief Engineer of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute)