okay to be

squeezed on the new energy car track.

Yang Zhongyang

  Xiaomi can also make waves.

A few days ago, there were reports that “Xiaomi has determined to build a car and regards it as a strategic decision”, which caused a shock of public opinion.

Although the Xiaomi Group announced its response, "It has not yet reached the formal project approval stage," the statement in the article similar to "The Group has always been concerned about the development of the electric vehicle ecology and has continued to evaluate and research related industry trends" has not only failed to dispel outside doubts, On the contrary, it gives people a "sit down" feeling.

  It is no accident that Xiaomi builds a car.

As early as 2013, Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi, paid a special visit to Musk, the head of Tesla, to learn from the experience of building cars.

Subsequently, Xiaomi applied for a large number of automobile-related patents, and Lei Jun also invested in Weilai and Xiaopeng through Shunwei Capital, hoping to control Weilai.

These bits and pieces all reflect the ambition of Xiaomi to build cars.

  From the perspective of industrial development prospects, it is also worthy of Xiaomi's "strike."

If we say that in the early years, everyone was still a little confused about the development of new energy vehicles, and now there is a consensus on the electrification and intelligent transformation of the automotive industry.

Especially in recent years, new car-building forces represented by Tesla and Weilai have gone up in sales, which not only changed people’s views on new car-building forces, but also greatly improved their own valuation in the capital market. value.

In contrast, Xiaomi launched hundreds of products last year, with revenue of 175.4 billion yuan, and its market value is not only far less than Tesla, but even lower than Weilai.

Xiaomi's "unwillingness" on this is understandable.

  However, as Xiaomi entered the new energy track, it also triggered another kind of discussion.

Prior to this, Apple, Baidu, and Foxconn had joined the carmakers, and Tencent, Meituan, and Ali also invested in Weilai, Ideal and SAIC Zhiji respectively.

Especially Baidu, while participating in Weimar, also participated in the war in person.

Real estate giants such as Evergrande and Baoneng are also chasing this trend across the border.

So some people worry that if so many giants are involved in the car-building war, will it cause congestion on the track and even overcapacity?

  To answer this question, it is difficult to say, and easy to say.

International economic development experience shows that if an industry wants to be vigorous, it must compete fully.

The prerequisite for full competition is that enterprises can enter freely.

Although the new energy vehicle industry is still immature, trial and error is a necessary process in the initial stage.

This is not based on the government's determination of which companies can succeed, because no one knows whether they will win.

Only by allowing more companies to participate in the competition, can the fittest survive the big waves.

  Rethinking that in the traditional automobile field, one of the important reasons why a strong independent brand has not been cultivated is that the entry of private enterprises was restricted in the early years and the competition was insufficient.

On the one hand, in terms of car production, only supporting the “three major and three small” enterprises, and obtaining “targeted” qualifications is equivalent to being protected by policy monopoly; on the other hand, private enterprises are blocked by artificial entry barriers in the industry. outer.

The logic behind this is that the automobile is an industry that pays attention to scale effects, and small-scale production projects will intensify disorderly competition, bring repeated investment, and will not help the industry's competitiveness.

There is nothing wrong with this conclusion, but the problem is that the scale effect is the result of full competition, rather than protection.

Therefore, it does not matter that the new energy vehicle track is crowded.

What is important is that the athletes must build their cars steadily, not impetuously, and not just for "enclosure" or "collection of money."

  As for the worry of overcapacity, we must adhere to dialectical thinking and development perspectives.

With a little analysis, we will find that the current overcapacity of automobiles in my country is structural.

The surplus is mainly the traditional automobile production capacity, especially the low-end production capacity, while the high-quality production capacity of new energy vehicles is scarce.

On the surface, there are many companies that produce new energy vehicles, but most of them are produced on the same platform as fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles.

These low-speed electric vehicles with low energy density and short cruising range represented by the marginal obsolescence of production capacity and oil-to-electricity replacement, and the outdated production capacity that has the name of empty electric vehicles but is not intelligent, is precisely the root cause of structural overcapacity .

The more advanced manufacturing plants that can truly meet all the manufacturing requirements of intelligent pure electric vehicles are basically concentrated in the hands of the four major new car manufacturers.

For example, Weimar owns two Level 4 smart factories.

Obviously, these high-quality production capacities for producing long-range mileage and smarter products are more positive for improving user experience and promoting the high-quality development of my country's new energy vehicles.

From this perspective, my country's "in principle no longer approve new traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers" is an important guideline.

  The development of new energy vehicles is the only way for our country to move from a major automobile country to a powerful automobile country.

According to estimates, my country's annual sales of new cars will reach 30 million in 2030. If 40% of new energy vehicles are calculated at an average price of 150,000 yuan per car, it will be a large market of more than 1.8 trillion yuan.

This does not include the aftermarket installment payment, insurance, repair insurance, energy storage and other services, nor does it include the value added as a smart mobile space after big data is connected.

Such a large-scale market is far from the smartphone industry can compare, there is no reason for heroes from all walks of life not to fight for it.