- In

 2020, the banking sector's net profit amounted to 1.6 trillion rubles and was only 6% lower than in 2019.

What is the reason for the fact that during the crisis period the industry losses were relatively small?

How do you assess the state of the banking sector today?

- The banking sector went through the pandemic better than the rest of the economy, because it turned out to be much less affected by the imposed restrictions, in contrast to the same hotels, restaurants or cafes.

For example, since the beginning of April, all departments have been working for us, and we have carried out all the calculations.

That is, in fact, the work of banks did not stop.

In addition, people and businesses did not run in panic from the banking sector and financial products.

Maybe they did not take loans so actively, but everyone continued to use the services.

Therefore, the drawdown in the second quarter was very short-lived for the financial sector.

In addition, the banking industry in Russia is already largely digitalized and is better prepared for a pandemic than a number of other sectors.

Many people made payments and settlements, placed orders using online banking services.

Well, a significant role was played by state support for the population and business, which traditionally went through banks.

We are talking about direct payments to people, child benefits, financial assistance to industries or small businesses.

All this actually allowed the banking sector not only to preserve, but also to increase its assets, which increased by 8-10% in 2020.

  • Mikhail Zadornov on the impact of the banking sector on the economy

Here we see such a sharp contrast with 2014-2015, when the financial sector sank more than other industries and, in a sense, pulled the entire economy with it.

Now the situation is reversed: the real economy was the first to be affected, but the banking sector supported it and was even able to increase revenue itself.

- In 2020, as a result of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's GDP decreased by 3.1%.

What are your predictions for 2021?

When will the economy return to pre-crisis levels?

- We forecast GDP growth of 3-3.5% in 2021.

It is still difficult to make more accurate predictions, since there is no clear understanding of how long vaccination will take in Russia, and, accordingly, when restrictions on many activities will be completely lifted.

Nevertheless, it is clear that, most likely, this will happen already somewhere in the second half of the year, so we are counting on recovery growth.

Russian banks are ready to support this growth - with lending, additional financial products or online services that are in demand today by people and businesses.

That is, banks can become a kind of driver and will push the economy towards growth, providing an opportunity for borrowing and investment.

- Earlier, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that within the next three years, the regulator may begin to return to a neutral monetary policy.

That is, we are talking about a gradual increase in the key rate from the current 4.25% to 5-6% per annum.

Do you think the Central Bank will start raising the rate in 2021?

How can this affect interest on loans and deposits?

- We do not expect an increase in the key rate in 2021 and hope that in the near future the rate will remain close to the current values ​​and still will not reach 5-6%.

Note that the Central Bank rate is not always an accurate indicator of the level of the value of money in the economy.

Rather, it indicates the direction in which the value of money is heading.

At the same time, if the value of money in the economy grows, banks will accordingly begin to raise deposit rates for both enterprises and the population.

However, the downside of this may be an increase in interest rates on loans.

- In 2020, a record number of private investors came to the Russian stock market.

What is the reason for the interest of Russians in buying securities, and how can the emerging trend affect the economy?

- The influx of Russians into the stock exchange opens up new opportunities for the financial system.

The fact is that earlier the Russian stock market was largely dependent on foreign investors, whose share reached 60-70% on the Moscow Exchange.

As a result, when foreign players, due to sanctions or other external factors, left our market, the value of Russian assets fell.

Therefore, the replacement of foreign investors with domestic ones is a boon for the country's domestic financial market.

  • Mikhail Zadornov and the influx of Russians into the stock market

Well, for people, buying securities is another source for storing and building up savings, along with bank deposits and real estate acquisition.

But you need to understand that you should only invest a part of your assets in the stock market, not be afraid of losing them and not rush to decisions.

That is, it should be a very deliberate policy.

I am sure that a Russian will learn to use these tools no worse than a German or an Englishman.

And a significant part of the population - now it is 10% of the active population, and there will be 20% and maybe even more - will use investments in the Russian stock market to increase their funds.

-

How do you assess the current state of the Russian currency?

What factors are currently affecting the dynamics of the ruble?

- The ruble would strengthen if there were no sanctions risks.

Today's oil price is pushing for the national currency to become stronger.

This is the objective data of our balance of payments.

But the value of Russian assets and the ruble today are under pressure not even from specific sanctions, but rather from expectations of some possible restrictions.

If this overhang of risks is removed, then the ruble will strengthen and the value of assets will be higher than it is now.